PostEurop Commissioned Independent Analysis of EU Parcel Markets

The European parcel delivery sector supporting e-commerce has come under fresh scrutiny as regulators weigh new rules. A comprehensive study released by PostEurop, the association representing European postal operators, provides a detailed economic assessment of competition levels across the EU. Prepared by Copenhagen Economics, the 46-page report examines market structure, firm conduct, and performance indicators in e-commerce parcel delivery. It concludes that the sector operates under effective competition without structural market failures.

PostEurop members commissioned the analysis to inform ongoing European Commission reviews of the postal services framework. The study arrives amid discussions about a potential EU Delivery Act that could extend sector-specific regulation to e-commerce parcels. Findings indicate low entry barriers, multiple active operators, moderate profit margins, and high consumer choice in both urban and rural areas.

Context of Growing E-commerce and Regulatory Review

E-commerce has transformed parcel delivery across Europe, with volumes rising sharply in recent years. National postal operators and private logistics firms now handle millions of parcels daily, connecting businesses and consumers in a single market. The European Commission is currently assessing whether existing postal regulations adequately address this shift or if additional measures are needed to ensure fair competition and consumer protection.

PostEurop represents 52 postal operators across the continent. The association has highlighted the sector's role in supporting Europe's digital economy and sustainable growth. The new study serves as an evidence base for these discussions, drawing on data from operators, regulatory filings, and market analysis covering the period up to 2025.

Methodology and Scope of the Copenhagen Economics Report

Copenhagen Economics applied a standard competition assessment framework focusing on three pillars: market structure, firm conduct, and market performance. Researchers analysed concentration ratios, entry and exit patterns, pricing behaviour, innovation levels, and service quality metrics. Data sources included operator submissions, European Commission merger cases, national regulatory reports, and consumer surveys.

The analysis covered both domestic and cross-border e-commerce parcel flows. It excluded traditional letter mail services, which operate under different market dynamics. The report also reviewed recent competition enforcement actions, identifying 19 domestic cases and 15 EU-level cases between 2020 and 2025 related to parcel delivery, excluding state aid matters.

Market Structure Shows Multiple Players and Low Barriers

The study finds several features consistent with competitive conditions. Leading parcel operators typically hold market shares between 37 and 50 percent, significantly lower than the 82 to 94 percent often seen in letter mail markets. Multiple operators compete actively, with evidence of new entrants and service expansion in both urban and rural regions.

Entry barriers remain low. No legal obstacles prevent new firms from participating, and infrastructure requirements such as sorting centres and delivery networks can be scaled incrementally. E-merchants demonstrate significant bargaining power when negotiating with delivery providers, further supporting competitive dynamics.

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Firm Conduct Reflects Healthy Competition

Operators engage in price competition, service differentiation, and innovation without evidence of widespread anti-competitive practices. Profit margins in the parcel segment align with levels regulators in Germany have deemed reasonable for a competitive market. Recent merger activity has been subject to standard European Commission scrutiny, with several joint ventures and acquisitions reviewed in 2023–2026.

Examples of reviewed transactions include the Deutsche Post and CTT joint venture, the acquisition of Cargus by Sameday, and the DHL-Evri joint control arrangement. These cases demonstrate active regulatory oversight rather than unchecked consolidation.

Market Performance Delivers Consumer Benefits

Consumers enjoy a wide range of delivery options, including various speeds, locations such as parcel lockers, and home delivery. Prices remain affordable and largely uniform between urban and rural areas. Service quality metrics show high satisfaction levels, with reliable delivery times and transparent tracking.

Cross-border delivery integrates seamlessly into many online platforms, often without consumers realising the international element. The study notes that 40 percent of consumers in earlier surveys did not distinguish foreign sellers, indicating effective market integration.

Comparison with Traditional Letter Mail Markets

The report contrasts the parcel sector with letter mail, where incumbent operators retain much higher shares. Parcel markets feature greater dynamism, with lower concentration and more frequent competitive interactions. This difference arises from the growth of e-commerce, which has attracted new entrants and spurred innovation in logistics.

Policy Implications for the EU Delivery Act Debate

Copenhagen Economics concludes that current evidence does not support broad ex-ante regulation of e-commerce parcel delivery. Existing competition law tools, including merger control and antitrust enforcement, appear sufficient to address any concerns. The study recommends maintaining a light-touch approach to preserve innovation and efficiency.

PostEurop has used the findings to engage with the European Commission on the future regulatory framework. The association argues that over-regulation could raise costs for consumers and businesses while stifling the sector's contribution to Europe's competitiveness.

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Stakeholder Perspectives and Broader Economic Context

Postal operators welcome the independent validation of competitive conditions. They emphasise the sector's role in supporting millions of jobs and facilitating cross-border trade. E-merchants benefit from choice and bargaining power, while consumers gain from variety and affordability.

The findings align with broader EU goals of a competitive single market. As e-commerce continues to expand, the parcel delivery sector's performance supports economic resilience and digital transformation across member states.

Future Outlook and Recommendations

The study suggests continued monitoring through existing competition frameworks rather than new sector-specific rules. Operators are expected to maintain investment in technology, sustainability, and service quality. Policymakers may focus on targeted measures, such as improving cross-border interoperability, while avoiding measures that could distort market incentives.

PostEurop plans further dialogue with regulators, including at the Implementation Dialogue on the EU Delivery Act scheduled for June 2026. The association remains committed to evidence-based policy that supports a more competitive Europe.