Unveiling the 2025 STI Indicators Report: A Snapshot of South Africa's National System of Innovation

The National Advisory Council on Innovation (NACI), an independent advisory body to the South African government on science, technology, and innovation (STI) matters, released its highly anticipated 2025 Science, Technology, and Innovation Indicators Report on March 26, 2026. Launched by Minister of Science, Technology, and Innovation Blade Nzimande at the CSIR International Convention Centre in Pretoria, the report provides a comprehensive evaluation of the National System of Innovation (NSI) – the network of institutions, policies, and actors driving research, development, and innovation in the country. This annual publication, mandated by the 2019 White Paper on Science, Technology and Innovation, uses key metrics to diagnose strengths, pinpoint weaknesses, and guide policy for economic transformation.

Themed 'Bridging the Gap: Using STI Data to Drive South Africa's Economic Future,' the report paints a nuanced picture: pockets of progress amid broader signs of stagnation and decline. While South Africa maintains leadership in Africa for digital connectivity and boasts competitive research outputs in certain fields, core indicators like research and development (R&D) spending and patenting reveal troubling regressions. These insights are particularly relevant for universities and research institutions, which perform over 50% of national R&D and produce the bulk of scientific publications.

Stagnation in R&D Investment: GERD Falls Short of Targets

Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D (GERD), the total national spending on research and experimental development as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), stands at a dismal 0.61% for 2022/23 – down from a peak of 0.76% in 2017/18. This figure lags far behind the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 target of 1.5% and even Africa's continental average of under 1%. The decline is starkly driven by the business sector, whose contribution to GERD dropped from 45.9% in 2013/14 to 35.4% in 2022/23, shifting the burden to government funding at 50.3%.

Historical trends exacerbate the concern. Pre-COVID, business R&D had already been volatile, with sharp drops post-2018/19 due to economic pressures and firm exits. Recovery in 2021/22 was modest, concentrated in sectors like information and communication technology (ICT) and health, but overall intensity remains insufficient for competitiveness. For higher education institutions (HEIs), this means tighter budgets for labs, equipment, and personnel, potentially stifling breakthrough research.

This table illustrates the persistent downward trajectory, underscoring the need for incentives to boost private sector engagement.

Plummeting Patent Applications Signal Innovation Drought

One of the report's most alarming findings is the halving of domestic patent applications per million population, from 39 in 2022 to 18.6 in 2023. South Africa now trails the African average of 3.4, reflecting a broader 'local innovation failure' as described by Minister Nzimande. Intellectual property (IP) trade is imbalanced: the country paid $1.6 billion for foreign IP rights in 2023 while earning just $167 million from its own – a net outflow that hampers technology transfer to industry.

Universities, key patent filers, face structural barriers including commercialization gaps and limited industry partnerships. Plant breeders' rights offer a bright spot, surging 21% to 318 applications in 2023, positioning South Africa among the global top five – largely driven by agricultural research at institutions like the Agricultural Research Council.

• Low persistence in R&D-performing firms contributes to patent volatility.
• High-tech manufacturing sees growth, but overall output lags.
• Policy levers like tax incentives could reverse the trend.

Scientific Publications: Quality High, but Quantity and Share Declining

South Africa authored 25,775 peer-reviewed scientific articles in 2023, ranking 29th globally and second in Africa after Egypt. Publications garner citations above the world average, particularly in health sciences, humanities, and natural sciences – a testament to research quality from HEIs like the University of Cape Town and University of the Witwatersrand. However, the global share plummeted from 1% in 2021 to 0.56% in 2023, with absolute declines in biotechnology since 2019, amid faster growth in China and India.

Field-specific trends show promise in digitalisation (nanotech outputs doubling) but stagnation elsewhere. International collaboration at 53% bolsters impact, yet domestic funding constraints threaten sustainability.

Human Capital Transformation in Higher Education: Progress Amid Capacity Strains

HEIs shine in transformation: women now 52% of academic staff (up from 46% in 2010), Black South Africans 62% (from 27%), and PhD-holding permanent staff 52.5% (from 35.7%), nearing the 75% NDP target for 2030. Yet, postgraduate enrolments grew 2.6% annually, outpacing staff growth (1.8%), straining supervision. An ageing workforce (60+ staff up to 10.6%) and young PhD holders dropping to 4.7% compound issues. Only 29% of 225,702 graduates are in STEM fields, linked to school-level maths literacy preferences.

Minister Nzimande flagged a 'ghostwriting industry' for theses, tasking NACI and the Department of Higher Education and Training (DHET) with investigation – vital for research integrity.

Sectoral Bright Spots: Health, Digital, and Space Lead the Way

Health R&D doubled to R10 billion (2022/23), nearly 25% of GERD. Digital governance advanced, with E-Government Index at 0.86 (40th global, Africa leader) and 74.7% internet penetration (45.3 million users). Venture capital tripled to R3.3 billion, fueling ICT and fintech. Space sector launched nine objects in 2023, with university nanosatellite programs emerging. Agriculture's plant breeders' rights boom highlights HEI-industry synergy potential.

Underlying Causes: Global Competition and Local Structural Weaknesses

The report attributes declines to intensified global rivalry, economic headwinds, and domestic issues: low business R&D persistence, skills mismatches, productivity stagnation in manufacturing (output 5% below decade ago despite 11% employment gain), and municipal innovation averaging 2/5. Competitiveness rankings slipped: IMD World from 60th to 64th, Global Innovation Index 59th to 69th.

Implications for Universities and Research Ecosystem

HEIs, funding ~30% of GERD and dominating publications/patents from public sector, face funding squeezes and supervision bottlenecks. Diversity gains foster inclusive research addressing local challenges like climate and health, but without business uptake, outputs risk remaining academic. Solutions include bolstering PhD pipelines, industry linkages, and IP commercialization hubs.

Government and Stakeholder Perspectives

Minister Nzimande urged business investment: "STI is key to competitiveness; business benefits most from tech advances." NACI Acting CEO Anneline Morgan called GERD a 'far cry' from pre-COVID levels. Calls for maths/science education reform from primary level and probes into thesis mills reflect proactive stance.

For deeper insights, read the Minister's full launch speech.

Pathways Forward: Actionable Recommendations and Outlook

The report advocates evidence-based policies: tax incentives for business R&D, STEM graduate boosts via schooling reforms, IP export strategies, and municipal capacity building. Achieving 1.5% GERD requires R100+ billion annual hikes. With venture capital momentum and HE transformation, targeted interventions could reverse decline by 2030, positioning South Africa as Africa's innovation hub.

• Enhance business-HEI collaborations for commercialization.
• Invest in early-career researchers to refresh workforce.
• Leverage digital strengths for inclusive innovation.
• Monitor 'ghostwriting' to safeguard credentials.

Stakeholders in higher education must prioritize these, exploring opportunities in health, space, and agri-tech.

Photo by Clodagh Da Paixao on Unsplash