School Maths Performance Linked to Higher Adult Earnings

A groundbreaking study from the University of Auckland has illuminated a compelling connection between high school mathematics performance and long-term success in education and the workforce. Led by economist Dr. Sam Stemper from the Business School, the research demonstrates that teenagers who excel in international maths assessments like PISA and TIMSS are more likely to achieve higher levels of education, stronger numeracy skills, and elevated incomes as adults. This finding underscores the pivotal role of mathematical proficiency in shaping life trajectories, particularly in a knowledge economy where analytical skills are paramount.

The study's emphasis on real-world application of maths—best captured by PISA's problem-solving focus—highlights why these skills translate directly to adult outcomes. In New Zealand, where secondary education feeds into university pathways, such insights are timely amid ongoing debates about curriculum effectiveness and student achievement.

Dr. Stemper's analysis pooled mathematics scores from thousands of high school students who participated in PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) and TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study). These 'gold standard' evaluations, conducted every few years, assess 15-year-olds worldwide. PISA tests practical application in everyday contexts, while TIMSS measures mastery of school curricula.

By linking these scores to 18 global adult surveys tracking education, numeracy, and earnings years later, the study revealed robust correlations. PISA scores emerged as stronger predictors of success, suggesting that the ability to apply maths in novel situations—rather than rote memorization—drives future prosperity. Although specific effect sizes were not quantified in press releases, the patterns held across diverse economies, including New Zealand participants.

This global lens provides credible evidence, drawing from representative samples spanning developed and emerging nations.

New Zealand's participation in both PISA and TIMSS offers a unique window into national trends. Since 2000, TIMSS scores have trended upward, indicating solid curriculum coverage. However, PISA results have stagnated or declined—from 494 in 2018 to 479 in 2022—placing NZ below the OECD average and signaling gaps in applied skills.

This divergence raises alarms: while students may ace textbook problems, real-life application lags. For a small, trade-dependent economy like New Zealand's, where STEM sectors contribute significantly to GDP, this could hinder productivity and earnings potential.

Equity issues compound the challenge, with Māori and Pasifika students disproportionately affected, perpetuating socioeconomic cycles.

Strong maths foundations unlock high-value careers in engineering, finance, IT, and data science—fields with median salaries often exceeding NZ$100,000 annually. Complementary NZ research from NZIER confirms that advanced high school maths yields lasting wage premiums, with STEM graduates earning double non-STEM peers three years post-graduation.

AUT University's longitudinal PISA cohort study reinforces this: young adults with low numeracy at age 15 face lower employment rates and incomes. At 25, those with baseline skills earn comparably to higher-achievers from privileged backgrounds, while low-skill Māori women experience stark disparities.

• Low numeracy: 25% criminal convictions by 25 vs. 8% high-skill peers.
• Higher hospitalisations: 59% vs. 46%.
• Employment gaps widen over time.

Improving one standard deviation in maths could boost lifetime earnings substantially, mirroring international patterns.

New Zealand universities, led by institutions like the University of Auckland, are central to maths education reform. UoA's Mathematics Education group researches learning processes, teacher training, and equity, offering programmes from undergraduate to PhD levels.

Initiatives include professional development for secondary teachers and partnerships with schools to foster real-world problem-solving. As gateways to STEM degrees, unis must prioritize bridging secondary gaps—especially with NCEA changes emphasizing achievement standards over rote learning.

The 'Make It Count' action plan targets 80% Year 8 proficiency in maths by 2030, funding resources and structured teaching akin to literacy reforms. 2026 curriculum updates mandate explicit instruction, challenging progressive methods criticized for PISA slumps.

University reforms emphasize vocational alignment, with TEC funding tied to outcomes. For more on policy evolution, see the Ministry of Education announcement.

Stakeholders, including Universities New Zealand, advocate for sustained investment in teacher upskilling and equity programmes.

Socioeconomic status strongly predicts maths achievement, with low-SES schools lagging. Pasifika and Māori students score 50-70 points below PISA averages, limiting university access and earnings.

Solutions include targeted interventions like Starpath at UoA, which boosts UE success for underachievers. Gender parity exists, but girls' real-world confidence needs bolstering.

In NZ, maths prowess fuels demand in tech (e.g., software engineers NZ$120k+), finance, and health. Universities like Auckland offer pathways via Bachelor of Science in Data Science or Engineering.

Actionable insight: Enrol in advanced NCEA maths for uni eligibility and career edge.

Dr. Stemper warns: “The divergence suggests we should pay attention to potential declines in ‘real-world’ problem-solving skills.” Education Minister Erica Stanford echoes calls for rigour, while teacher unions stress resources.

Multi-perspective: Principals note workload; researchers urge application-focused curricula.

By prioritizing PISA-style skills, NZ can reverse declines, boosting GDP via skilled graduates. Universities will lead via research and training. Students: Master maths for financial independence; parents: Support tutoring; policymakers: Fund equitably.

Explore AUT's full PISA report for deeper trajectories: Download here.

Photo by Andrew Yu on Unsplash

• Practice real-world problems daily (e.g., budgeting, stats).
• Seek uni bridging courses if secondary gaps exist.
• Teachers: Blend TIMSS rigour with PISA application.

This comprehensive view positions strong school maths as a launchpad for thriving adult lives in New Zealand's dynamic economy.