Vaping Uptake Stalls in Great Britain: Insights from UCL Population Health Sciences Research

Understanding the Stall in Vaping Uptake Across Great Britain

The momentum behind vaping in Great Britain, which surged dramatically since disposable electronic cigarettes gained popularity around 2021, has noticeably slowed. Recent research from University College London (UCL) Population Health Sciences highlights this plateau, showing that overall vaping rates among adults aged 16 and over stabilized at approximately 13% between early 2024 and 2025. This shift marks a significant departure from the previous rapid annual increases of nearly 25%, prompting questions about behavioral changes, policy influences, and long-term public health trajectories.

This development is particularly relevant for public health professionals, policymakers, and academics tracking nicotine use patterns. As universities like UCL continue to lead in tobacco and vaping epidemiology, their findings inform strategies to balance harm reduction for smokers with preventing uptake among non-smokers, especially youth. For those exploring careers in this field, opportunities abound in research and policy roles at institutions driving these insights.

UCL's Landmark Study: Methodology and Core Data

The pivotal UCL study, published in the journal Addiction in April 2025, drew from the Smoking Toolkit Study—a nationally representative cross-sectional survey conducted monthly across England, Wales, and Scotland. Researchers analyzed responses from 88,611 adults aged 16 and over, spanning January 2022 to January 2025. Participants were asked about current vaping status (use in the past week) and primary device type, providing granular monthly trends.

Key metrics included relative risk (RR) trends: before January 2024, vaping prevalence rose by 23.4% annually (RR=1.234, 95% CI 1.184-1.287). Post-announcement, growth halted, with no significant change. Disposable e-cigarette (single-use vapes) dominance also plummeted, from 43.6% of vapers' main devices in January 2024 to 29.4% by January 2025. Lead author Dr. Sarah Jackson from UCL's Institute of Epidemiology & Health emphasized the timeliness of this data for evidence-based policymaking.

This rigorous approach underscores how university-led longitudinal surveys offer unparalleled insights into evolving behaviors, aiding everything from national health strategies to academic grant pursuits. Aspiring epidemiologists can find relevant research jobs advancing such critical work.

The Explosive Rise: From 2021 Disposable Boom to Peak

Disposable vapes exploded onto the UK market around mid-2021, characterized by their affordability, flavors, and convenience—no charging or refilling needed. This coincided with a sharp uptake: vaping among 16-24-year-olds jumped from 17% in January 2022 to 26.5% by January 2024, while overall adult rates climbed from 8.9% to 13.5%. Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) data corroborates this, noting prevalence rising from 6.3% in 2020 to over 10% by 2024, driven largely by young adults and smokers transitioning.

• Disposable appeal: Compact design, fruit flavors, nicotine strengths up to 20mg/ml under Tobacco Products Directive (TPD).
• Market growth: Sales surged, with brands like Elf Bar dominating.
• Demographic pull: 63% of young vapers primarily used disposables by early 2024.

However, environmental concerns (non-recyclable batteries) and youth initiation fears prompted government scrutiny, setting the stage for regulatory response.

Pivot Point: Government Announcement and Behavioral Shift

In January 2024, the UK government signaled a ban on disposable vapes, effective June 1, 2025, as part of broader Tobacco and Vapes Bill measures. UCL data captured an anticipatory response: vaping growth ceased immediately, with disposable main-use halving among youth (63% to 35%). This suggests consumers preemptively switched to reusable pod systems or tanks, avoiding abrupt cessation.

Professor Jamie Brown, senior author, noted: "People adapt behaviors ahead of policy changes." By 2025 ASH surveys, adult vaping plateaued at 10.4% (5.5 million users), with disposables at 24% of vapers—down from 31% peak. Post-ban (now 9 months in as of March 2026), early indicators from ONS and Fingertips data show sustained stability, though youth ever-tried rates hover at 20-32%.

Such preemptive shifts highlight policy signaling's power, a lesson for public health academics modeling behavioral economics.

Photo by Rapha Wilde on Unsplash

Youth and Young Adults: Highest Impact Group

While overall rates stabilized, 16-24-year-olds saw the steepest prior rise (17% to 26.5%) and disposable drop. ASH 2025: 10.7% current use among 18-24, with 32% ever-tried. Never-smoker youth vaping fell to 1.6% (11-17), low but monitored. Concerns persist over gateway risks, though evidence shows most young vapers are experimenters, not sustained users.

• Plateau benefits: Stabilized at high but non-escalating levels.
• Risks: Nicotine addiction potential, lung impacts like EVALI (e-cigarette or vaping product use-associated lung injury).
• Context: Smoking among youth at historic lows (<5%), vaping fills niche but not displacing entirely.

Universities like UCL advocate targeted interventions: flavor bans, marketing curbs, without alienating adult quitters. For higher ed, this fuels demand for youth health specialists.

Decline in Disposable Dominance: Market Adaptation

Disposables' share crashed post-announcement: 43.6% to 29.4% overall, sharper in youth. Reusables rose correspondingly, cost-effective long-term (pods ~£5-10 vs disposables £5-8 each). Environmental wins: Reduced lithium battery waste. Industry pivoted to compliant TPD devices (2ml tanks, 600 puffs equiv.).

ASH notes 38% Elf Bar, 35% Crystal among remnants. Vape tax from Oct 2026 (£2.20/10ml) may further shape landscape.

Policy Evolution: Tobacco and Vapes Bill in 2026

The Tobacco and Vapes Bill, progressing through Lords in early 2026, builds on disposable ban with generational smoking end (post-2009 birth cohorts), vape licensing, flavor/packaging restrictions. Impact assessments predict minimal overall vaping drop but youth deterrence. UCL urges balance: Protect smokers' switch (vapes 95% less harmful per Public Health England).

Stakeholders: NHS Swap to Stop scheme expands, mass media campaigns promoted. Academic input vital—craft a strong CV for policy advisory roles.

UCL and University Research: Pillars of Evidence-Based Policy

UCL's Tobacco & Alcohol Research Group exemplifies higher ed's role, with longitudinal data guiding £millions in funding (Cancer Research UK). Similar from Bath, King's College. Outputs inform WHO, UKHSA. For postdocs, postdoc positions in epi abound; rate profs via Rate My Professor.

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Public Health Balance: Cessation Aid vs New Users

Vaping aids 30k-50k annual quits (ASH); 55% vapers ex-smokers, 40% dual-users reducing cigs/day (7.3 vs 12.2 pre-vape). Dual-use: 1 in 20 adults. Never-smokers: 0.9-5%, downtrending. Risks: Youth initiation, unknown long-term (bronchiolitis obliterans?). Solutions: Targeted cessation support.

Future Trajectories and Actionable Insights

By March 2026, plateau holds amid ban/tax. Projections: Reusables dominate; flavor curbs may trim youth use. Insights: Monitor via uni surveys; prioritize smoker support. Explore higher ed jobs in public health, UK university roles, or career advice. Engage via comments below.