Assessing High-End Sea Level Rise projections and Impacts on Coastal Hazard

About the Project

Project Overview:

Whilst numerous sea level rise projections exist, uncertainty over their upper bounds remain. This PhD will apply a regional, coupled modelling system to examine credible sea level rise maxima under different climate projects, and assess their impact on extreme sea level hazards including storm surge, wave conditions and tidal amplification.

Project Description:

Despite numerous projections of sea level rise under varying emission scenarios, significant uncertainty remains regarding the upper bounds of future, peak coastal water levels. This uncertainty poses a substantial challenge for planning and the resilience of long-lived coastal infrastructure, particularly in the energy sector. Coastal hazards, such as storm surges, compound flooding, overtopping, and erosion, are often triggered by meteorological events that combine multiple drivers like wind, rainfall, storm surge, and high waves (Bevacqua et al, 2020) and are exacerbated by rising sea levels.

The aim of this PhD project to explore what could constitute credible, future sea level rise maxima over relevant timescales under different climate projections and examine their impact on extreme sea level hazard components including storm surge, wave conditions and tidal amplification. The project will develop high-end scenarios across these hazard drivers and establish a framework for combining them using both coupled modelling and more theoretical storyline approaches (e.g., Palmer et al. 2024) to aid risk communication and coastal adaptation planning. This will make use of a new regional coupled modelling system developed for the Northwest European Shelf, including atmospheric, wave, ocean and river models at km-scale (Lewis et al. 2019). A set of climate hazards at the spatial scale of a weather-forecast will be produced, and analysed to examine surges, tides and waves. This will enable consistent and well-quantified assessments that extend from national scale to targeted site-specific information, with direct relevance to the UK’s coastal energy infrastructure, informing both adaptation planning and regulatory guidance.

We are looking for:

• A degree in a relevant field such as mathematics, physics, engineering, oceanography, or a related discipline, with a strong focus on numerical and physical process modelling and a good analytical background
• Ability to handle and analyse large datasets, and experience working in Linux and high-performance computing (HPC) environments is preferred but not essential.
• Training is provided as part of the Flood-CDT as well as support and specific training on numerical modelling by the supervisory team.

This project will be located at: University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre

Entry Requirements:

Applicants must already have, or expect to shortly graduate with, an undergraduate degree or Master’s degree (at least a UK 2:1 honours degree) in a relevant subject.

Please note: Due to funding limitations, this opportunity is only available for applicants that qualify for home fees/ UK nationals

How to apply:

All applications should be submitted by 11:59pm on Sunday 24th May 2026.

Applications should include:

• CV/ résumé giving details of your academic record, any relevant work history and stating your research interests.
• Name two current academic referees together with their institutional email addresses in the Reference section of the application form.
• Your academic transcript and degree certificate (translated if not in English) - if you have completed both a BSc & an MSc, we require both.
• Include a short statement of your research interests in flooding, motivation for applying to FLOOD-CDT and rationale for your choice of project(s), in the Personal Statement section of the application form.

Please ensure that you provide all required documentation and information so that your application can be reviewed and processed.

Please upload all documents in PDF format. You are encouraged to contact potential supervisors by email to discuss project-specific aspects of the proposed prior to submitting your application.

Please enter the project title and lead supervisor’s name in Section 2 to state which project you would like to apply for.

This project is unavailable for Part-time study

Funding Notes

The Centre for Doctoral Training for Resilient Flood Futures (FLOOD-CDT) funds PhD researchers for 3.5 years, full- or part-time. A FLOOD-CDT studentship includes a tax-free stipend at the UKRI standard rate (£21,805 for the academic year 2026/27). Funding covers home tuition fees. Additionally, FLOOD-CDT provides a Research Training Support Grant of £8000 across the lifetime of the PhD, to be used on small project costs, conference attendance and individual training needs.