About the Project
While advances in volcanology have revealed much about eruption processes, research has largely concentrated on a small set of well-monitored volcanoes, geographically skewed towards continental and northern hemisphere regions. This focus has left significant gaps in our understanding of many volcanoes, especially in resource-poor regions including island arcs in Southeast Asia. These areas coincide with the world’s highest volcanic activity, yet eruption histories, geological maps, and monitoring data are incomplete or absent. Volcanoes capable of very large magnitude eruptions (M ≥ 6), with the potential to cause severe regional or global impacts, remain missing from current risk assessments.
This PhD project will address this critical knowledge gap by identifying which volcanoes are most likely to produce highly explosive, large-magnitude eruptions. The student will combine global datasets with targeted field investigations to test the attributes hypothesised to favour such eruptions. Using a training dataset of well-studied volcanoes with known large eruptions, the project will employ statistical and machine learning (ML) methods to identify the strongest predictors of eruption magnitude. These predictive models will then be applied to poorly characterised volcanoes, producing a prioritised list for further research and monitoring.
Fieldwork in Southeast Asia, in collaboration with Indonesian partners, will test and refine these predictions. The student will also help organise a joint field course (with the Global Volcano Risk Alliance charity), to train local and international students in volcanic mapping, tephra sampling, dating techniques, and the analysis of volcanic ash for health impacts. This component will strengthen scientific capacity, foster community engagement, and produce valuable new data for the project.
By integrating advanced data science with traditional field volcanology and community-based training, the project will identify hidden high-risk volcanoes and contribute directly to monitoring priorities and the next generation of volcano scientists. The outcomes will be relevant to global disaster risk reduction efforts and will support targeted investment in monitoring infrastructure where it is most urgently needed.
Applicants should be comfortable working with quantitative analytical methods (specific machine learning skills can be developed during the PhD). Willingness for fieldwork in challenging environments is essential.
For further information on this project and details of how to apply to it please visit https://centa.ac.uk/studentship/2027-b17-finding-the-most-explosive-volcanoes-on-earth/
Further information on how to apply for a CENTA studentship can be found on the CENTA website: https://centa.ac.uk/apply/
Funding notes:
This project is offered through the CENTA3 DLA, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funding covers: annual stipend, tuition fees (at home-fee level), Research Training Support Grant.
Academic requirements: at least a 2:1 at UK BSc level or a pass at UK MSc level or equivalent.
Further information: https://centa.ac.uk/apply/
International students are eligible for studentships to a maximum of 30% of the cohort. Funding does not cover any additional costs relating to moving or residing in the UK. International applicants must fulfil the University of Birmingham’s international student entry requirements, including English language. Further information: https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/postgraduate/pgt/requirements-pgt/international/index.aspx.
References:
Cassidy, M. (2025) ‘When sleeping volcanoes wake’, Aeon Magazine, September 2025.
Costa, A., Gottsmann, J., Melnik, O. and Sparks, R. S. J. (2011) ‘A stress-controlled mechanism for the intensity of very large magnitude explosive eruptions’, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 310 (1–2), pp. 161–66.
Costa, A. and Martí, J. (2016) ‘Stress field control during large caldera-forming eruptions’, Frontiers in Earth Science, 4, p. 92.
Giordano, G. and Caricchi, L. (2022) ‘Determining the state of activity of transcrustal magmatic systems and their volcanoes’, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 50 (1), pp. 231–59. doi: 10.1146/annurev-earth-[contact details available in the full listing].
Maisonneuve, C. Bouvet de, Forni, F. and Bachmann, O. (2021) ‘Magma reservoir evolution during the build up to and recovery from caldera-forming eruptions – a generalizable model?’, Earth-Science Reviews, 218, 103684.
Newhall, C., Self, S. and Robock, A. (2018) ‘Anticipating future Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions and their chilling impacts’, Geosphere, 14 (2), pp. 572–603. doi: 10.1130/GES01513.1.
Sheldrake, T. and Caricchi, L. (2017) ‘Regional variability in the frequency and magnitude of large explosive volcanic eruptions’, Geology, 45 (2), pp. 111–14.
Sparks, R. S. J., Blundy, J. D., Cashman, K. V., Jackson, M., Rust, A. and Wilson, C. J. N. (2022) ‘Large silicic magma bodies and very large magnitude explosive eruptions’, Bulletin of Volcanology, 84 (1), 8. doi: 10.1007/s[contact details available in the full listing]-y.
Weber, G. and Sheldrake, T. E. (2022) ‘Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs’, Scientific Reports, 12 (1), 15854.
Project supervisors
Dr. Mike Cassidy
Dr Mike Cassidy is a member of the School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on volcanic explosivity, forecasting eruptions, and mitigating the impacts of large explosive eruptions. Dr Cassidy's work involves studying the physio-chemical controls of volcanoes and their behaviour during eruptions, contributing to the understanding of volcanic processes and enhancing eruption prediction capabilities. His expertise in volcanology and petrology is vital for developing strategies to manage and reduce the risks associated with volcanic activity.
Research interests
Dr Cassidy's research focuses on volcanic explosivity, forecasting eruptions, and mitigating the impacts of large explosive eruptions. His interests include the study of volcanic processes, petrology, and physio-chemical controls related to volcanic activity.
