About the Project
Background
The impacts of compound events exceed the sum of individual impacts of underlying climatic and non-climatic drivers. These impacts often propagate through natural and man-made water systems but in complex and uncertain ways. The challenge for risk assessment and adaptation decision making is envisaging diverse plausible compound events, defining and mapping their relationships with the water system, and identifying relevant management options. Methodological developments in narratives/storylines…
and Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) can help address all three dimensions. Focusing on a real-world case study in eastern England, this research advances climate change risk assessment and adaptation science with real-world impact.
PhD project
Uncertainty and complexity are crucial elements in climate change risk assessments. While climate extremes are increasing there is concern that their complex interactions with natural and human systems could cause unexpected and severe impacts. Multiple climatic and non-climatic drivers sometimes interact to amplify impacts. The challenge is to understand how these compound extreme events (including High Impact Low Likelihood (HILL) events) interact and affect natural and human systems. Narratives and storylines offer a useful approach for generating qualitative and quantitative scenarios for exploring uncertainty and complexity, and applying adaptation decision making under uncertainty methodologies. Building and applying such interdisciplinary understanding will require developing skills in climate data analysis, systems modelling and decision making under uncertainty. The collaborative efforts of Dr. Ajay Bhave and Prof. Suraje Dessai (University of Leeds), Dr. Geoff Darch (Anglian Water) and Prof. Patrick Reed (Cornell University), will provide training opportunities, help develop skills and expertise to conduct novel interdisciplinary research, and generate impact through a real-world case study in eastern England.
Research questions:
- How can narratives/storylines help qualitatively and quantitatively explore plausible and relevant compound climate events and the associated uncertainties in future evolution?
- How could systems modelling and decision making under uncertainty approaches be leveraged to assess complex risks from plausible compound events to the water system in eastern England and evaluate diverse risk management strategies?
- How does the improved understanding of uncertainties and risks associated with compound events contribute to the holistic understanding of climate risks to the water sector?
Applicant Profile
Students with a background in water resources and/or applied climate science with a strong interest for learning new skills and conducting interdisciplinary research.
Funding Notes
This project is part of the UNRISK CDT, which offers 15-18 fully-funded NERC studentships, covering full university tuition fees; a personal stipend at standard UKRI rates; £6000 individual research and training costs; £5000 (per student) of cohort-level training; and a ‘Flexible Fund’ for special projects.
International applicants will need to cover costs related to applying for a student visa and the international health surcharge (IHS)
Applications are open to UK and international applicants. The number of awards for international applicants is limited by UKRI rules.
More information is available on the UNRISK website: View Website
References
Dr Ajay Bhave: https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/see/staff/1158/dr-ajay-bhave
The Society for Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: https://www.deepuncertainty.org/
Anglian Water’s Climate change adaptation report 2020: https://www.anglianwater.co.uk/siteassets/household/in-the-community/climate-change-adaptation-report-2020.pdf