Modelling the Prevention of Cardiometabolic Outcomes and Reducing Health Inequalities

Applications accepted all year round. Self-Funded PhD Students Only.

About the Project

Cardiovasclar disease continues to be a major public health policy challenge and understanding how its unequal health burden can be tackled is a global priority.

Cardiometabolic diseases—including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and related multimorbidity—remain leading contributors to premature mortality and widening health inequalities worldwide. This PhD will join the internationally recognised NCD Prevention and Food Policy Modelling Group and Theme, whose work has shaped national and global prevention strategies through advanced population modelling. The project will develop and apply innovative epidemiological and policy simulation models to understand how upstream determinants, particularly diet and the food environment, drive unequal cardiometabolic outcomes—and how prevention policies can equitably reduce future disease burden.

Building on the established IMPACT modelling approaches, the student will analyse linked longitudinal data, risk-factor trends, and disease trajectories to quantify the contributions of social, behavioural, and system-level factors to cardiometabolic risk. The project will evaluate interventions including dietary policies (fiscal levers, reformulation, out-of-home sector regulation), hypertension and diabetes prevention strategies, and broader policies affecting food availability and affordability. These models have previously informed WHO global sodium benchmarks, NHS Health Check redesign, CMO reports, OECD analyses, and major national policy decisions—providing a rich and policy-engaged environment for the student’s work.

Potential areas of focus include:

• identifying and quantifying structural drivers of inequalities in cardiometabolic outcomes;
• modelling prevention strategies targeting diet, blood pressure, dysglycaemia, and obesity;
• projecting long-term impacts on CVD, diabetes, disability, and healthy ageing;
• assessing distributional effects of interventions across socioeconomic groups.

The student will join a vibrant team with a strong track record in high-impact publication, international collaboration, and major funding (ERC, ESRC, NIHR, Health Foundation).

Ideal candidates will have quantitative, epidemiological, or computational skills; a commitment to policy-relevant research; and enthusiasm for tackling health inequalities using rigorous analytical and modelling approaches.

Email your CV, cover letter, funder, and a proposal to Prof O’Flaherty moflaher@liverpool.ac.uk