Predicting the Unpredictable: Are Earth's Radiation Belts chaotic?

About the Project

Earth's Outer Radiation Belt is a highly dynamic region of space, where the number of high-energy MeV electrons can increase by a factor of a thousand or more in the space of a few hours. This natural laboratory for extreme plasma physics sits right on our cosmic doorstep, yet behaves with amazing unpredictability.

The behaviour of the Outer Radiation Belt isn't just an academic curiosity. The satellites we rely on for GPS navigation, weather forecasting, communications, and Earth monitoring all orbit through this treacherous environment. Electrons with energies over 1MeV – so-called "killer electrons" – can fry spacecraft electronics without warning, making Earth’s radiation belts the most dangerous neighbourhood in near-Earth space.

Here's the puzzle: scientists and space weather forecasters at the UK Met Office can tell you what's happening in the radiation belts right now with impressive accuracy. But predicting what will happen even a few hours ahead? That's where our models break down. Is this chaos fundamental to space weather, like the butterfly effect in terrestrial weather systems? Or are we missing crucial physics that would unlock predictability?

The only way to find out is through bold numerical experimentation - and that’s what we propose for this PhD project.

You'll become a space weather researcher, designing and conducting cutting-edge numerical experiments using a mature international radiation belt model. Think of it as running controlled experiments on a virtual radiation belt - tweaking conditions, running ensemble simulations, and hunting for the physical mechanisms that drive this extreme environment.

Your work will address fundamental questions: What makes the radiation belts predictable or unpredictable? Do small changes in solar wind conditions lead to wildly different outcomes? Can we identify the tipping points that determine satellite safety?

This project has the potential to make advances on multiple fronts - your experiments will directly inform our understanding of plasma energization not just around Earth, but for other astrophysical environments as well. You will also have the chance to work with stakeholders such as the UK Met Office to make a tangible difference in our abilities to predict the impacts of dangerous space weather in our near-Earth environment.

World-Class Training and Support

We'll give you everything you need to succeed. You'll receive comprehensive training in space plasma physics through Masters-level modules, and we’ll ensure that you receive the training you need in software development and advanced computing. Additional financial support is provided for UK national summer schools in space plasma physics, with opportunities to apply for international summer schools in space weather modelling, plasma physics, and machine learning. You'll undertake collaborative research visits to partner institutions in the US and Europe and attend conferences to present your research on the global stage.

You'll join a large, diverse, and welcoming research group at Northumbria with extensive UK and international collaborations. This is a supportive environment designed to help you thrive.

Who Should Apply

This project is perfect for you if you have a background in physics, applied mathematics, computing, or related fields. We're looking for curiosity about extreme environments and complex systems, interest in numerical modelling and computational experiments, and enthusiasm for tackling fundamental scientific questions. No prior experience in space physics is required - just passion, curiosity, and strong quantitative skills.

Eligibility Requirements:

• Academic excellence i.e. 2:1 (or equivalent GPA from non-UK universities with preference for 1st class honours); or a Masters (preference for Merit or above); or APEL evidence of substantial practitioner achievement.
• Appropriate IELTS score, if required.
• Applicants cannot apply if they are already a PhD holder or if currently engaged in Doctoral study at Northumbria or elsewhere.
• Must be able to commit to campus-based full-time or part-time study.

To be classed as a Home student, candidates must:

• Be a UK National (meeting residency requirements), or
• have settled status, or
• have pre-settled status (meeting residency requirements), or
• have indefinite leave to remain or enter.

If a candidate does not meet the criteria above, they would be classed as an International student.

Applicants will need to be in the UK and fully enrolled before stipend payments can commence and be aware of the following additional costs that may be incurred, as these are not covered by the studentship.

For further details on how to apply see https://www.northumbria.ac.uk/research/postgraduate-research-degrees/how-to-apply/

In your application, please make sure to include the advert reference (e.g. STFC26/...).

Deadline for applications: 1st June 2026

Start date of course: 1st October 2026

Northumbria University is committed to creating an inclusive culture where we take pride in, and value, the diversity of our postgraduate research students. We encourage and welcome applications from all members of the community.

Academic Enquiries

This project is supervised by Prof Clare Watt. For informal academic queries, contact clare.watt@northumbria.ac.uk. For enquiries relating to eligibility or application process, please use the email form below to contact Admissions.

You will join a strong and supportive research team. The very best way to get a taste of this is to come and visit the Research Group in person, meet your fellow PhD students, and meet the PhD supervisors. We have funding to support all UK National applicants who wish to visit the research group (with funding to fully cover reasonable travel and accommodation costs). Please contact Head of Group Professor James McLaughlin at james.a.mclaughlin@northumbria.ac.uk if you are interested in visiting the Group, and we can arrange travel arrangement (and cover these costs). Also feel free to contact individual PhD supervisor if this is better for you.

Funding Notes

This studentship is available to Home students and includes a full stipend at UKRI rates (for 2025/26 FT study this is £20,780 per year) and full tuition fees. Studentships are also available for Home applicants who wish to study part-time over 5 years (0.6 FTE, stipend £12,542 per year and full tuition fees) in combination with work or personal responsibilities).