Systems thinking and modelling to support workforce planning in health and social care

About the Project

Health and social care systems are facing increasing pressure due to growing demand for services, workforce shortages, and resource constraints. In the UK, the NHS and the social care sector are experiencing significant challenges in recruiting, retaining, and effectively deploying staff. These challenges arise from a complex set of interacting factors, including demographic change, financial pressures, workforce retention issues, and limited coordination between health and social care services.

Demographic trends are expected to intensify these pressures. It is projected that by 2045, around 4.3% of the UK population will be aged 85 or older, substantially increasing the demand for health and social care services. At the same time, the workforce in these sectors is already struggling to meet current needs. The situation was further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Workforce development has therefore been identified as a strategic priority by the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC). Addressing workforce shortages and ensuring a sustainable workforce requires a deeper understanding of the interactions between workforce supply, service demand, and policy interventions across the health and social care system.

This PhD project will apply systems thinking and modelling approaches to support workforce planning and strategic decision-making in health and social care. The project will pursue the following objectives:

• Develop a systemic understanding of workforce challenges within the health and social care sector.
• Explore appropriate systems thinking approaches for modelling workforce planning problems.
• Develop a system dynamics model to analyse workforce supply, demand, and capacity in health and social care systems.

The resulting models will enable the exploration of “what-if” policy scenarios, supporting long- and medium-term strategic planning. These scenarios may include changes to workforce education and training, adjustments to skills mix and specialisation, and the impact of technological developments such as telemedicine and remote patient monitoring.

There is flexibility in the scope of the project. Applicants may focus on workforce planning at the regional or national level, within the UK or in another country, or within a specific health or care speciality.

This research will contribute to both academic knowledge and policy practice by advancing the application of systems thinking methods to complex workforce planning challenges in health and social care. The supervisory team has an internationally recognised track record in systems thinking and modelling, offering the successful candidate the opportunity to collaborate with leading researchers in this field.