Towards impact- and risk-based forecasting of extreme weather events for the General Lighthouse Authorities of the UK and Ireland

About the Project

The resilience of the General Lighthouse Authorities of the UK and Ireland’s critical infrastructure, assets, systems and operations need to be managed in the face of climate change, in which weather patterns (such as storm tracks, jet-stream), ocean currents (Gulf stream) and extreme weather events are becoming more variable and severe. These changes have serious impacts on infrastructure and assets; there is therefore a critical need to find better ways to better understand the predicted weather changes to UK and Irish coastlines be more prepared for (and more resilient to) the challenge posed by extreme weather events.

Armed with this information, impact- and risk-based weather forecasts have the potential to relay messages that enable appropriate actions, improve planning for a range of scenarios based on different impacts, and contain information about level of confidence in the forecast for better decision-making. There is a timely need to develop research the Greater Lighthouse Authorities’ response to the changing weather patterns and events. To create an operational impact-based forecasting and warning system, however, requires a step-change in the way forecasting systems are co-designed and risk-based information is shared and communicated.

The aim of this PhD, in partnership with GRAD working on behalf of the General Lighthouse Authorities of the UK and Ireland, is to quantify the impacts of more changing weather patterns and more frequent predicted extreme weather phenomena on the UK and Ireland’s critical lighthouse infrastructure, assets, systems and operations, and explore the applicability of impact- and risk-based forecasting approaches to support preparedness and long-term resilience.

The PhD will consist of three overarching objectives:

1. Quantify the correlation between extreme weather patterns, ocean currents and extreme events and the impacts posed to the Greater Lighthouse Authorities’ assets and operations across the UK and Ireland, both now and in the future, in response to more frequent predicted extreme weather phenomena in a changing climate;
2. Co-develop scenarios, indicators and risk-based models with the Greater Lighthouse Authorities that incorporate exposure, vulnerability that would enable the risk assessment and management of their assets and operations; and
3. Explore the opportunities of impact- and risk-based extreme weather forecasting for the Greater Lighthouse Authorities on different temporal / forecasting time scales (e.g., nowcasting, numerical weather prediction, long-range probabilistic forecasting, climate tipping points)

This PhD will lead to an improved impact- and risk-based understanding of theextreme weather that affects the General Lighthouse Authorities’ infrastructure and operations around the UK and Ireland. Strategic recommendations for the General Lighthouse Authorities and other stakeholders will be developed to mitigate and adapt to these identified risks.

The successful candidate will benefit from site visits and other collaborative opportunities supported by GRAD working on behalf of the General Lighthouse Authorities of the UK and Ireland. This PhD also aligns with the new 4-year ANTICIPATE COST Action CA24144 on multi-hazard prediction and early-warnings, Chaired by Prof Christopher White, which will provide additional opportunities for collaboration with international climate and weather researchers and practitioners, ensuring the PhD’s science and policy relevance and wide applicability.

Supervisory team

The successful candidate will be supervised by an international team comprising Prof Christopher White from the University of Strathclyde https://www.strath.ac.uk/staff/whitechristopherdr/ and Dr Fiachra O'Loughlin from University College Dublin https://people.ucd.ie/fiachra.oloughlin. The successful candidate will be based full-time at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow.

Who we are looking for

We are looking for a talented individual with the skills and desire to address a critical gap in understanding the intersection of climate change and extreme weather and its impacts on the General Lighthouse Authorities of the UK and Ireland critical infrastructure. They will have an interest in integrating insights from climate science, meteorology and systems modelling to enhance the resilience of lighthouse structures and operations. They will be a practical, self-motivated person who will lead the development and direction of their project. Applicants should have a strong background in one or more relevant fields related to the project, including weather and/or climate science, engineering, mathematics and management science. Applicants should have a first-class honours degree in a relevant subject or a 2.1 honours degree plus Masters (or equivalent). Some programming experience in analytical languages such as MATLAB, Python or R would be beneficial. Experience with using Large Language Models, AI and ML would be advantageous.

How to apply

Please complete the enquiry form to express your interest in this PhD project. For informal enquiries, please contact Prof Christopher White chris.white@strath.ac.uk

Funding Notes

This project is a fully funded 42-month PhD position supported by JARSS (EPSRC) and the General Lighthouse Authorities (GLA) of the UK and Ireland.

This PhD project will be hosted by the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow. Full funding for 3.5 years is available for home (UK) applicants only. International applicants are welcome to apply but will need to fill the funding gap themselves. The funding available will be in line with the UKRI doctoral stipend levels and indicative fees.