About the Project
The impact of environmental change on a given species will be mediated by the complex wider network of interactions within the community. This poses a fundamental challenge for ecologists trying to forecast the impacts of perturbations such as climate change or habitat management, as the potential routes and mechanisms is very large. Ecological theory is essential to simplify the problem by giving fundamental insights into the drivers and determinants of change, but testing predictions in the field is hard as dynamics may take decades to play out. Forecasts must also contend with uncertainty in ecological processes and parameters, as well as the inherent stochasticity of ecological systems. To tackle these challenges experimentally, we have developed a mesocosm system of thermally-sensitive Drosophila flies and parasitoid wasps that attack them that is fast and tractable. Their short generation times allow environmental change to be “fast-forwarded” across multiple generations in highly replicated experiments enabling strong tests of fundamental concepts in community ecology.
Aims
This PhD will investigate when and why ecological theory can successfully predict community responses to environmental change, working in tandem with a wider NERC-funded forecasting project (https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=UKRI4153). There is considerable scope for the student to develop their own questions and hypotheses with the Drosophila community system and beyond. Potential questions include:
- How do temperature regimes alter the strength of species interactions at different scales?
- When do indirect and ‘higher-order’ interactions become important for predicting community responses?
- When can simpler models predict as well, or better, as complex ones?
- How do the magnitude, rate and temporal pattern of temperature change affect the reliability of ecological predictions?
- Which ecological uncertainties are most impactful for forecast reliability?
The student will be supported to develop a distinctive project within this area, combining new experiments with theoretical, simulation or comparative approaches.
Methods
The project will combine short single-generation parametrisation assays and multi-generational Drosophila experiments, Bayesian population dynamics models, simulations and formal ecological theory. The balance of experimental and desk-based work can be flexible, and there is potential to also analyses large public community ecology datasets. A strong interest in quantitative ecology is important, but substantial previous mathematical experience is not required. Full training in Drosophila experimental approaches, statistical methods and other skills will be available, and the student will join a large and dynamic research grouping (CERO) investigating many aspects of insect community ecology.
Project code
CT02
Funding
This project is part of the DPhil in Biology programme, and is not a funded course at the University of Oxford; as such, students are expected to explore options for funding. However, we anticipate being able to offer around 6 full graduate scholarships to incoming DPhil students in 2027/28.
You will be automatically considered for several Oxford scholarships, which cover fees and stipend, if you fulfil the eligibility criteria and submit your graduate application by 6 January 2026. Scholarships are awarded based on academic achievement and potential to excel as a DPhil student.
For further details about searching for funding as a graduate student visit the graduate study information on our website.
Eligibility
For full entry requirements and eligibility information, please see the main admissions page.
How to apply
The deadline for applications for 2027/28 entry is 6 January 2027. We will continue to accept applications submitted after this date, but these late applications will not be considered for scholarship funding.
You can find the admissions portal and further information about eligibility and the DPhil in Biology Programme at the University's graduate admissions page. Please quote the Project Reference Code alongside the title in the ‘Proposed field and title of research project, if applicable’ field in the application form.
Institution website: https://www.biology.ox.ac.uk/dphil
References
- Terry, J.C.D. (2025), An Experimental Validation Test of Ecological Coexistence Theory to Forecast Extinction Under Rising Temperatures. Ecology Letters, 28: e70047. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70047
- Bright, N. L., Chen, J., & Terry, J. C. D. (2025). Transgenerational effects increase the vulnerability of a host–parasitoid system to rising temperatures. Journal of Animal Ecology, 94, 2089–2102. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.70112
- Terry, J. C. D., Chen, J., & Lewis, O. T.. (2021). Natural enemies have inconsistent impacts on the coexistence of competing species. Journal of Animal Ecology, 90, 2277–2288. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13534