US Higher Ed Braces for Sharp Drop in International Graduate Enrollment Due to Trump Visa and Policy Changes

Recent Data Highlights the Sharp Decline in New International Enrollments

In the fall of 2025, U.S. higher education institutions witnessed a significant downturn, with new international student enrollment plummeting by 17 percent compared to the previous year. This marks a stark reversal from prior growth trends, signaling challenges ahead for colleges and universities reliant on these students for tuition revenue and academic diversity. 87 90

Overall international enrollment, including continuing students and those on Optional Practical Training (OPT)—a post-graduation work authorization program for F-1 visa holders—dipped by 1 percent for the 2025-26 academic year. This is the first annual decline after four years of steady increases, as reported in the Institute of International Education's (IIE) Open Doors Fall 2025 Snapshot survey, which gathered data from over 800 institutions. 39

Graduate Programs Hit Hardest by Enrollment Drops

International graduate students, who make up about 40 percent of all international enrollees and are crucial for STEM fields, experienced a 12 percent decline in enrollment. Master’s programs saw a 2 percent drop from October 2024 to October 2025 per Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) data, with some institutions reporting far steeper falls, averaging 29 percent at select colleges. 89 88

Undergraduate enrollment bucked the trend with a 2 percent rise, underscoring how policy uncertainties disproportionately affect shorter-term graduate pathways like one- or two-year master’s degrees. Fields such as computer science and engineering, where international talent dominates, face particular strain. 90

Trump Administration Policies Driving the Decline

The Trump administration's immigration reforms have intensified scrutiny on F-1 student visas, the primary visa category for academic students. Key changes include prolonged visa processing delays, expanded social media vetting, and revocations of over 8,000 student visas, often without notice. SEVIS terminations affected hundreds in early 2025, targeting perceived security risks. 58

• Threats to eliminate or restrict OPT, which allows up to three years of work post-graduation, deterring applicants who view U.S. degrees as pathways to careers via H-1B specialty occupation visas.
• New $100,000 fees on H-1B petitions and limits on renewals, complicating transitions from student to professional status.
• Travel restrictions and bans impacting nationals from 19 countries, with 96 percent of affected institutions citing visa issues. 87
• Shorter duration of status for F-1 and J-1 visas from certain nations, limiting stay flexibility.

These measures frame international students—57 percent in STEM—as potential security concerns, despite their economic contributions exceeding trillions in lifetime value. 88

Economic Repercussions for Institutions and the Economy

The enrollment drop translates to over $1.1 billion in lost revenue for U.S. higher education and nearly 23,000 fewer jobs nationwide, according to NAFSA's analysis. States like California ($161.9 million loss), New York ($152.5 million), and Massachusetts ($92.1 million) bear the brunt, as international students pay full out-of-state tuition without financial aid. 90

Research labs suffer as international graduates fill critical roles; their absence slows innovation in key sectors. Institutions are bracing for budget cuts, deferred maintenance, and reduced faculty hires—check higher ed faculty jobs for openings amid shifts.

Real-World Case Studies from U.S. Universities

Northwest Missouri State University saw graduate international enrollment plummet from 557 to 125, with 494 visa denials and 43 SEVIS revocations. DePaul University reported a 63 percent drop in new graduate admits, while Georgetown University lost 20 percent. 89

Elite programs reflect the trend: University of Pennsylvania's Wharton MBA class had international students at 26 percent (down 5 points), Duke Fuqua at 38 percent (from 47 percent), and University of Wisconsin-Madison's master’s programs down 22 percent. 89 George Washington University hit a record low of 12,936 graduate students, down 6 percent. 45

Regional impacts vary; Ohio's Bowling Green State and Cleveland State saw 34 percent drops, while community colleges grew 8 percent overall.Inside Higher Ed analysis highlights how these losses exacerbate demographic cliffs.

Perspectives from Students and Stakeholders

International students express fear over detentions, deportations for activism, and opaque revocations. Surveys show 85 percent of institutions view government policies as major barriers, up significantly. 34 Experts like NAFSA leaders urge protecting OPT and visa processing, warning of ceding talent to competitors like Canada and Australia.

Administrators note shifting recruitment to India (top source at 31 percent), Vietnam, and Brazil, as China (23 percent) declines 4 percent. 88

Institutional Strategies to Mitigate the Impact

Universities are adapting through aggressive recruitment (71 percent of growing institutions), targeted outreach, and diversified markets. Some pivot to online cross-border programs, partnerships abroad, and employer branding to attract talent—explore employer branding tips.

• Enhance visa support services and pre-arrival guidance.
• Leverage alumni networks in emerging markets.
• Advocate via groups like Presidents' Alliance for policy reversals.
• Boost domestic enrollment and philanthropy to offset losses.

For career seekers, this opens doors in higher ed jobs, including remote and adjunct roles.

Broader Implications for U.S. Higher Education Competitiveness

The decline risks eroding U.S. leadership in global talent pipelines, with surveys showing students opting for Europe and Asia amid U.S. uncertainty. STEM research output could falter without international contributions, impacting innovation and national security ironically. 56

Rate professors via Rate My Professor or seek higher ed career advice to navigate changes.

Potential Solutions and Policy Recommendations

Experts advocate for the Keep STEM Talent Act to ease green card paths, exempting students from travel bans, and streamlining F-1/J-1 visas. Institutions push for Duration of Status preservation and OPT expansion. 90

Long-term: Balanced reforms prioritizing security while retaining talent, as Trump noted economic benefits of Chinese students.

Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

Projections indicate continued drops into 2026 without policy shifts, with 15-30 percent further declines possible. Institutions plan hybrid models and global partnerships. Monitor university jobs for adaptation roles. 78

In summary, while challenges mount, proactive strategies offer hope. Explore higher ed jobs, rate your professors, and career advice at AcademicJobs.com to stay ahead.