New Research Proposes Off-Gridding Framework for Urban Energy Transitions in South Africa

South Africa's Persistent Energy Challenges Driving Off-Gridding

South Africa's energy landscape has been dominated by chronic electricity shortages, commonly known as load shedding, stemming from state-owned utility Eskom's aging coal-fired power plants, mismanagement, and ballooning debt exceeding R400 billion. These outages, which peaked at over 300 days in 2023, have pushed households, businesses, and even municipalities toward decentralized energy solutions, marking a significant shift in urban energy transitions. Amid this crisis, rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have surged, with nearly 1 gigawatt (GW) deployed in the first quarter of 2025 alone, contributing to cumulative capacity approaching 8 GW by year's end. 52 53 This rapid adoption reflects not just survival tactics but a broader reconfiguration of how cities like Cape Town and Johannesburg access power.

The post-apartheid promise of universal grid access as a cornerstone of citizenship is unraveling, with off-gridding—defined as practices and processes reducing reliance on the central grid—emerging as a response. Recent research from the University of Cambridge illuminates this trend, proposing a novel framework to dissect these dynamics. 72

The New Framework: Conceptualizing Off-Gridding Practices

A groundbreaking research paper titled "Towards a framework of 'off-gridding': Conceptualising the practices and processes of urban energy transitions in South Africa," published in December 2025 in the journal Geoforum, offers a comprehensive lens for understanding these shifts. Led by Joanna Jasmine Watterson from the University of Cambridge, the study draws on interviews with local government officials, private energy providers, and civil society representatives, alongside field observations in diverse neighborhoods across Cape Town and Johannesburg. 72 73

The framework positions off-gridding as a continuum of interactive, relational practices involving material (e.g., solar panels, batteries), organizational (e.g., private mini-grids), and social (e.g., community negotiations) dimensions. It highlights how end-user actions "from below" intersect with state and market processes "from above," reshaping infrastructure futures and state-citizen relations in the context of apartheid legacies and the global push for just energy transitions.

This approach moves beyond binary on/off-grid views, recognizing hybridization as normative, and provides tools for policymakers to foster equitable decarbonization.

Three Core Forms of Off-Gridding in Urban Contexts

The paper delineates three interconnected forms of off-gridding, each tied to socioeconomic strata and revealing stark inequities:

• Grid Secession: Predominantly among high-income households (about 1% nationally), where full disconnection occurs via solar home systems with substantial battery storage. This insulates affluent suburbs from load shedding but prompts municipal resistance, as it threatens cross-subsidies funding low-income supply.
• Grid Marginalization: Affecting 4-5.5% of households, mainly low-income in townships and informal settlements, due to grid failures, high connection costs, or deliberate exclusion. Residents resort to hazardous alternatives like paraffin or illegal wires, perpetuating health risks and urban peripherality.
• Grid Supplementation: The most prevalent, spanning income levels, where alternatives like inverters, generators, or small-scale solar augment unreliable grid power. Wealthier users deploy sophisticated hybrids; poorer ones patchwork precarious sources.

These forms underscore how off-gridding, while adaptive, often entrenches spatial and class divides rooted in apartheid planning. 73 74

Case Studies: Cape Town and Johannesburg Neighborhoods

In Cape Town's Khayelitsha, the Qandu community exemplifies supplementation via private solar mini-grids serving dozens of informal homes. Providers install shared panels and batteries, charging affordable fees that undercut paraffin costs, with 85% resident interest signaling demand. Yet regulatory hurdles limit scaling, as municipalities grapple with integrating non-grid services into basic provision mandates. 71

Johannesburg's Diepsloot mirrors this, where 74% of surveyed households seek mini-grid connections to escape illegal reconnections and fires. High-income areas like Sandton, meanwhile, pioneer secession with full solar-battery setups, bypassing Eskom entirely. Field observations reveal how these practices reconfigure urban citizenship: affluent secession signals state withdrawal, while marginalized supplementation demands new inclusion models.

For researchers and academics exploring sustainable urbanism, these cases offer fertile ground; explore opportunities in research jobs advancing energy equity studies.

Photo by Yusuf Onuk on Unsplash

Reproducing Inequality: Social and Spatial Implications

Off-gridding exposes fault lines in South Africa's just energy transition. While rooftop solar has eased load shedding—deploying over 500 MW in ongoing projects and aiding grid stability—it disproportionately benefits the wealthy, who claim tax rebates and wheeling rights to sell excess power. 50 Marginalized communities face heightened vulnerability, with paraffin fires killing hundreds annually and informal connections risking electrocution.

The framework reveals uneven state enabling: municipalities incentivize affluent hybrids while prohibiting private mini-grids in settlements to preserve grid centrality and subsidies. This departs from the 1990s Reconstruction and Development Programme's universal access vision, risking a two-tier energy citizenship amid the Just Energy Transition Partnership's $13.7 billion renewables push.

Stakeholder Perspectives: Government, Private Sector, and Communities

Local governments in Cape Town and Johannesburg express ambivalence: off-gridding alleviates demand pressure but erodes revenue and equity. Private providers advocate regulatory clarity for mini-grids, citing bankability needs. Civil society warns of deepened divides, urging subsidies for low-income hybrids.

Watterson notes: "Off-gridding makes visible the ways decentralised energy transitions can reproduce existing inequalities." 73 Balancing decarbonization with justice requires policy innovation.

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Policy Challenges and Pathways Forward

Key hurdles include NERSA's licensing delays for private generation, Eskom's monopoly remnants, and Free Basic Alternative Energy policy gaps. Solutions encompass:

• Streamlined mini-grid regulations with municipal co-payments.
• Expanded subsidies for low-income solar, mirroring rooftop rebates.
• Hybrid grid models integrating decentralized renewables.

The national Integrated Resource Plan targets 20 GW solar by 2030, but equitable off-gridding integration is pivotal.Read the full paper for deeper analysis. 72

Future Outlook: Toward Equitable Urban Energy Transitions

By 2030, South Africa's solar PV market could hit 14 GW, driven by falling costs and private procurement. 53 The off-gridding framework equips cities to navigate this, ensuring transitions bolster rather than undermine inclusion. Global applicability to postcolonial contexts amplifies its value.

For academics and students, this research underscores interdisciplinary opportunities in geography, energy policy, and urban studies—check university jobs for openings.

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Actionable Insights for Stakeholders

Households: Assess hybrid viability via audits. Businesses: Invest in mini-grids for resilience. Policymakers: Adopt the framework for just transitions. Researchers: Build on this via empirical extensions.

PV Magazine coverage details real-world momentum. 73

In summary, off-gridding heralds decentralized futures but demands vigilant governance. Explore rate my professor, higher ed jobs, and career advice to engage further.