Centennial College, one of Ontario's largest community colleges, made headlines in early 2025 when it announced the suspension of 49 full-time programs for the 2025-26 academic year. This decision came amid a staggering 43 percent drop in new international student enrollments, translating to roughly 5,000 fewer students. The move represented nearly 28 percent of its previous program offerings, dropping from 177 to around 128 active intakes. While suspensions are not permanent closures—programs can be reviewed and potentially reinstated—the immediate impact has reshaped the college's landscape and sent shockwaves through Canada's post-secondary sector.

International students have long been a cornerstone of financial stability for Canadian colleges like Centennial. They pay tuition fees two to three times higher than domestic students, often CAD 15,000 to 20,000 annually per program, effectively subsidizing lower-cost education for locals. With domestic tuition frozen since 2019 until at least 2027 and stagnant public funding, the sudden enrollment plunge created an existential crisis. President and CEO Craig Stephenson described it as 'a huge blow to our financial stability and program offerings,' noting that even domestic interest couldn't sustain low-demand programs.

The Catalyst: Canada's International Student Policy Overhaul

The root cause traces back to the federal government's 2024 cap on study permits, slashing new approvals by 35 percent to 360,000 amid housing pressures and labor market concerns. This was followed by a 10 percent further reduction for 2025 and 2026, targeting 437,000 permits. Provinces now allocate Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs)—essential for applications—with Ontario colleges receiving disproportionately fewer compared to universities.

Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL): A document issued by provinces confirming an institution's allocation under the cap, required for most study permit applications since January 2025. For colleges, PAL allocations plummeted, leading to enrollment forecasts showing Ontario losing over 92,000 international students by 2025-26—a 36 percent decline from peak levels. Nationally, new study permit cohorts dropped 64 percent in 2025-26 versus 2023-24, pushing many back to pandemic-era lows.

Step-by-step policy evolution: (1) January 2024 announcement of 35 percent cap; (2) Summer 2024 exemptions for some master's programs; (3) 2025 PAL system rollout; (4) Continued reductions into 2026, with total new permits at 155,000—a 50 percent cut from 2024. Colleges, reliant on 40-60 percent international revenue, bore the brunt, unlike research-focused universities.

Centennial's Enrollment Cliff: Numbers and Financial Strain

At Centennial, international students comprised nearly half of new intakes pre-cap. The 43 percent drop equated to a revenue shortfall in the tens of millions, compounded by fixed costs like facilities and faculty salaries. The college projected Ontario colleges losing $3.1 billion over two years, with individual institutions facing deficits up to $93 million by 2026-27 absent interventions.

Financial breakdown: International tuition generates CAD 200-300 million annually across Ontario colleges; a 40 percent average drop erodes this base. Centennial's response included campus consolidations, like merging Story Arts Centre programs to Progress Campus, and staff reductions. By mid-2025, unions reported nearly 10,000 job losses province-wide.

• 43% decline in new international enrollments (5,000 students).
• 28% program reduction initially.
• Total suspensions reached 54 by March 2025.
• Additional cuts in April 2025 at creative campuses.

Affected Programs: From Business to Creative Arts

The suspensions targeted low-enrollment programs, predominantly those popular with international applicants. Key categories included:

By October 2025, for 2026-27, three programs were reinstated (e.g., Honours Bachelor of Public Relations Management), but eight more suspended, including fast-track tech options like Food Science Technology.

These programs often served as pathways to permanent residency via Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWP), attracting students from India, Nigeria, and China. Suspensions disrupt career pipelines in high-demand fields like hospitality, vital to Toronto's economy.

Photo by Jivan Garcha on Unsplash

Impacts on Students: Uncertainty for Current and Prospective Learners

International students already enrolled complete their studies uninterrupted, but new applicants face slim options. Domestic students benefit from smaller classes but lose program diversity. Affected cohorts, like those eyeing business diplomas for entrepreneurship streams, must pivot to alternatives like Seneca or Humber College—also cutting programs.

Real-world case: A Nigerian student aiming for Centennial's Tourism Management found it suspended, redirecting to online options or Australia, where caps are looser. Cultural context: In Toronto's diverse fabric, colleges foster global networks; cuts risk isolating communities.

Faculty and Staff Layoffs: Human Cost of the Crisis

Unions like OPSEU/SEFPO warned of 10,000 job losses across 24 Ontario colleges by mid-2025. Centennial implemented targeted layoffs, focusing on support roles. Faculty face precarious contracts as enrollments stabilize lower. 'Workers fought tooth and nail,' said OPSEU, amid contract negotiations.

• Job security eroded by program volatility.
• Shift to part-time adjunct roles.
• Risk of brain drain in creative fields.

Ripple Effects Across Ontario's College Network

Centennial isn't alone: Algonquin suspended dozens, Conestoga cut 100+, Seneca merged campuses. Province-wide, 600 programs axed in one year. Economic fallout: Reduced local spending (intl students contribute $2B+ to GTA economy), housing relief but job losses in education services.

Comparisons:

• Centennial: 54 suspensions (2025).
• Niagara: 50+ intakes paused.
• Fanshawe: Campus rationalization.

Government Response and Policy Debates

Ottawa maintains caps for sustainability, but critics argue they ignore underfunding (per-student grants unchanged since 2009). Ontario's PAL formula favors universities (55% allocation), starving colleges. Advocacy includes pleas for funding boosts; 2026 budget eyed for relief.

Photo by Hugo Coulbouée on Unsplash

Adaptation Strategies and Glimmers of Hope

Colleges pivot: Micro-credentials, online hybrids, domestic recruitment drives. Centennial reinstated programs showing demand and secured PALs for high-priority fields like nursing aides. Partnerships with industry (e.g., tech bootcamps) offer alternatives. Future outlook: Stabilized enrollments by 2027 if caps ease, but permanent shifts to quality-over-quantity.

• Enhance PAL-eligible graduate programs.
• Boost apprenticeships (exempt from caps).
• Leverage AI for personalized advising.

Long-Term Implications for Canadian Higher Education

This crisis underscores over-reliance on transient revenue. Solutions: Increase per-student funding to CAD 8,000+, diversify domestically, reform PGWP for skilled trades. For students: Explore /ca/ontario/toronto jobs or resilient programs. Stakeholders urge balanced policy preserving global talent inflows.

Actionable insights: Prospective students verify PAL status; faculty upskill via academic CV guides; institutions lobby unifiedly.