McMaster Researchers Pioneer National Analysis on Transit Electrification

Researchers at McMaster University have delivered a groundbreaking study demonstrating that Canada can fully transition its public transit bus fleets to battery electric buses (BEBs), also known as electric buses, in a manner that is both economically viable and environmentally transformative. Published in Nature Scientific Reports, the paper titled "National assessment of transit electrification in Canada: infrastructure costs, energy demand, and greenhouse gas reduction potential" provides the first comprehensive bottom-up evaluation using real-world data from 102 transit providers across the country. Led by Hatem Abdelaty and supervised by Moataz Mohamed, associate professor in the Department of Civil Engineering and director of the McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics, this research challenges longstanding skepticism about the feasibility of full fleet electrification.

The study leverages open-source General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data to model bus operations, vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT), energy consumption rates averaging 1.25 kWh per kilometer, and battery sizing while maintaining state-of-charge (SoC) between 20% and 90%. By simulating depot-only charging strategies—where buses recharge overnight at transit depots—the analysis ensures service continuity without requiring en-route charging infrastructure upgrades initially.

📊 Detailed Cost Breakdown for Full Electrification

The financial implications are central to the study's persuasiveness. To replace the current 12,191 conventional diesel buses with 14,628 BEBs—a 17% fleet expansion to account for charging downtime—the annualized national cost totals approximately $1.94 billion CAD per year. This breaks down primarily to $1.73 billion for bus procurement, with charging infrastructure, electricity, and emissions costs comprising the remainder. Moataz Mohamed notes, "This is not a scary number. For what we gain, this cost is reasonable and it positions Canada as a global leader in heavy-duty vehicle electrification."

Provincially, Ontario bears the largest share at $821 million annually, followed by Quebec ($378 million) and British Columbia ($349 million). The cost of decarbonization averages $1,180 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent reduced, competitive with other low-carbon strategies. Sensitivity analyses reveal battery prices as the dominant factor, with a 40% increase raising total cost of ownership (TCO) by 15.8%, underscoring the need for continued advancements in battery technology.

• Fleet procurement: $1.73 billion (89% of total)
• Electricity operations: $153 million
• Charging stations: Less than 1%
• Emissions costs: $12 million

Compared to diesel fleets, BEBs offer long-term savings through lower operational expenses, though upfront capital remains a hurdle addressable via government incentives.

Grid Impact: Minimal Strain on Canada's Power System

A common concern for electrification skeptics is electricity grid capacity. The McMaster model projects an additional 1.255 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually—equivalent to just 0.20% of Canada's total generation. Peak power demands top out at 71.85 megawatts (MW) in Ontario, 32.25 MW in Quebec, and 31.05 MW in British Columbia, representing negligible additions to provincial peaks (under 0.38%).

Hourly profiles show demand peaking during overnight charging (late evening to early morning), aligning with off-peak grid availability. This depot-charging approach avoids daytime spikes, facilitating integration without major upgrades. Mohamed emphasizes, "Fully electric fleets are not only affordable and possible, they would cut greenhouse gas emissions by more than 92 per cent, research shows."

Environmental Gains: Over 92% GHG Reductions Nationwide

The environmental case is compelling: full electrification slashes GHG emissions by 92.68%, from 1.77 million tonnes CO₂ equivalent to 129,747 tonnes annually. Social cost of carbon savings mirror this at $445 million yearly. Benefits vary by province due to grid cleanliness—Quebec achieves near-zero emissions (from 294,000 to 263 tonnes), while fossil-heavy grids like Alberta see 65% reductions (207,000 to 72,000 tonnes).

No scenario increases emissions, even in dirtier grids, making this a robust net-zero strategy. The study advocates accelerating fossil-fuel phase-out in provinces like Nova Scotia and Alberta to maximize gains. For context, this aligns with Canada's 2050 net-zero ambitions, positioning transit as a quick-win sector.Read the full study in Nature Scientific Reports.

Photo by ZHENGFAN YANG on Unsplash

Provincial Variations and Tailored Strategies

Canada's diverse geography and grids necessitate nuanced approaches. Ontario requires 1,426 additional BEBs, British Columbia 438, and smaller provinces like Prince Edward Island just 8. Costs per tonne reduced range from $1,062 in Ontario to $2,338 in Nova Scotia. Sobol sensitivity indices confirm battery costs dominate everywhere (total-order index >0.9 provincially).

Researchers recommend province-specific policies, such as leveraging B.C.'s clean hydro for early adoption.

Current Progress in Canadian Transit Electrification

As of early 2026, adoption accelerates. Toronto's TTC operates 100 electric buses, targeting 400 by Q2 2026 from a 340-unit order. Oakville Transit aims for 50% electrification (74 of 135 buses) by end-2026. Saskatoon eyes 100% by 2030, with initial Nova Bus deliveries. Nationally, the market projects growth from $391 million in 2025 to $1.24 billion by 2034 at 13.7% CAGR.

Brampton partners with Zenobē on a CA$4 billion fleet transition. Yet, Quebec recently reintroduced hybrid subsidies, tempering pure-electric mandates. McMaster's data fills critical gaps for scaling.

Government Support and Funding Landscape

Federal initiatives bolster momentum. The $30 billion Canada Public Transit Fund launches in 2026, succeeding the Zero Emission Transit Fund (ZETF) with $2.75 billion for ZEBs. Recent $97 million supports 155 clean projects, including chargers. Provinces like Ontario invest heavily, aligning with McMaster's cost models.

CUTRIC's ZEB Database forecasts near 5,000 zero-emission buses by 2026, dominated by battery electrics (FCEVs declining). The study urges integrated funding for fleets, chargers, and grid prep.

Challenges, Solutions, and Optimization Tools

Key hurdles include upfront costs and cold-weather performance (Canadian winters demand robust batteries). Solutions: retrofitting as interim (cost-effective short-term), bus rotation strategies reducing TCO by 38% in trials, and McMaster's developing free optimization toolbox for agencies.

• Step 1: Assess GTFS data for VKT and routes.
• Step 2: Model energy use and battery sizing.
• Step 3: Simulate charging schedules.
• Step 4: Optimize fleet via AI tools.

Future en-route charging could minimize fleet growth.

Photo by Ali Sedigh Moghadam on Unsplash

Implications for Higher Education and Research Careers

This McMaster-led research highlights civil engineering and logistics programs' role in sustainability. Opportunities abound for postdocs, research assistants, and faculty in transportation electrification. McMaster's Institute exemplifies interdisciplinary work blending engineering, policy, and data science.Browse research assistant jobs or postdoc positions driving Canada's green transit future. Universities like McMaster train the next generation, from modeling to policy advising.

Professionals can leverage such studies for impactful careers; explore higher ed career advice.

Future Outlook: Canada as Global Leader

With manufacturing prowess (e.g., Lion Electric, New Flyer) and clean grids, Canada eyes first-mover status. Operational BEB data will fuel AI innovations in battery management and planning. Mohamed asserts, "This study gives decision makers the confidence to act. We have the data. We have the technology."

Stakeholders—agencies, utilities, governments—should prioritize battery R&D, incentives, and pilots. For academics, this opens grants in sustainable transport. Visit Rate My Professor for insights into programs like McMaster's Civil Engineering or higher ed jobs in the field. Canada's transit electrification path is clear, affordable, and bright.