Breakthrough JAMA Research Reveals Alarming US Obesity Trajectory

Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington have delivered a stark warning in their latest publication in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). Titled "US State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity by Race and Ethnicity From 1990 to 2022 and Forecasted to 2035," the study projects that nearly half of all US adults—specifically 46.9% or about 126 million people—will be living with obesity by 2035 if current trends persist. This comes after obesity rates more than doubled from 19.3% in 1990 to 42.5% in 2022, affecting 107 million adults.

The analysis, led by Nicole K. DeCleene and colleagues including Dr. Catherine O. Johnson, draws on vast datasets to paint a comprehensive picture of this public health crisis. By highlighting granular variations across states, races, ethnicities, sexes, and ages, the paper underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions. As a premier research publication from a leading university, it exemplifies how higher education institutions are at the forefront of tackling national health challenges through rigorous, data-driven science.

Historical Trends: From 20% to Nearly 50% in Three Decades

Obesity, defined as a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher—a measure calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared—has surged dramatically. In 1990, just 34.7 million US adults (19.3% of the population aged 20 and older) met this threshold. By 2022, that figure ballooned to 107 million (42.5%), reflecting profound shifts in diet, lifestyle, and environment.

The study's methodology combined measured BMI from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with bias-corrected self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Gallup Daily Survey. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and Bayesian models enabled precise state-level estimates and forecasts through 2035, accounting for over 11 million participants sampled by demographics.

This trajectory signals not just numbers but a looming epidemic with ripple effects on healthcare, economy, and productivity. University researchers like those at IHME play a pivotal role in quantifying these trends, informing policymakers and clinicians alike.

Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Sex Lay Bare Inequities

Age-standardized prevalence in 2022 reveals stark divides: non-Hispanic Black females topped at 56.9%, followed by Hispanic females at around 49%, while non-Hispanic White males were lowest at 40.1%. Females consistently faced higher rates than males across groups, with within-state gaps larger for women.

Black women exceeded 50% obesity in nearly every state except Hawaii, a pattern projected to endure. Hispanic populations showed elevated risks in Midwestern and Southern states, while non-Hispanic Whites peaked in places like West Virginia (47-49%). These inequities stem from intersecting factors like food access, socioeconomic status, and cultural norms, demanding nuanced public health responses.

• Non-Hispanic Black females: 56.9% (2022)
• Hispanic females: ~49%
• Non-Hispanic Black males: ~40-43%
• Non-Hispanic White males: 40.1%

Such data empowers universities to tailor research and programs, fostering careers in research jobs focused on health equity.

State-Level Hotspots: Midwest and South Lead the Surge

Midwestern and Southern states dominate high-prevalence maps. In 2022, Oklahoma led for Hispanic women (~54%) and Black men (~44%), Indiana for Hispanic men (~47%). Projections paint grimmer pictures: South Dakota nears 60% for Hispanic women, Oklahoma 49% for Black men, Indiana 54% for Hispanic men by 2035.

West Virginia topped non-Hispanic White rates (47% men, 49% women), contrasting D.C.'s lows (~24-26%). No state anticipates declines; Mississippi's Black women may plateau with just 1.8% rise. These forecasts highlight regional vulnerabilities tied to rural food deserts and sedentary jobs.

For academics studying public health, explore opportunities in higher ed jobs addressing these regional challenges, especially in states like Oklahoma or West Virginia.

Age and Generational Shifts: Youthful Onset Accelerates Crisis

Middle-aged adults (45-64) bear the highest burden, but fastest rises hit under-35 women, portending earlier diabetes and heart disease. Young adults' surge ties to processed foods, screen time, and post-pandemic habits.

Higher education offers a buffer: CDC data shows college graduates at 27.3% obesity versus 35.7% for some college. Campuses foster wellness via gyms, nutrition classes, countering the 'freshman 15'—average 1.6-3kg gain. Yet, psychological distress links to higher risks among students, per recent studies.

Root Causes: Multifactorial Drivers Fuel the Epidemic

Dr. Catherine O. Johnson notes obesity's roots in poor food access, built environments favoring inactivity, and ultra-processed diets high in sugars/fats. Sedentary work, economic stress, and marketing exacerbate it. Gallup data hints GLP-1 drugs (e.g., semaglutide) dipped rates to 37% in 2025, but rebound looms without systemic change.

• Processed foods: Calorie-dense, nutrient-poor
• Inactivity: Desk jobs, urban design
• Socioeconomics: Low-income areas lack fresh produce
• Genetics/early life: Compound environmental risks

Universities lead etiology research, training future experts via academic career advice.

Health and Economic Ramifications Demand Action

Obesity drives $200 billion annual costs (2019), fueling diabetes (type 2), cardiovascular disease, cancers. Productivity losses hit workplaces, including academia where faculty wellness affects teaching/research.

Younger onset strains future workforce; higher ed must prioritize. Studies show obese students face academic hurdles, lower GPAs. Institutions respond with wellness centers, policy shifts like healthier dining.

Link to full JAMA study for data visualizations.

University-Led Solutions: Prevention Through Education and Innovation

UW's IHME exemplifies higher ed's role, using advanced modeling for actionable insights. Campus programs prove effective: UNC's intervention cut overweight/obesity 8% via education.

GLP-1 access, updated USDA guidelines emphasizing proteins over carbs, and equity-focused strategies are promising. Colleges integrate nutrition into curricula, partner on trials.

• Wellness apps/tracking
• Mindful eating workshops
• Community gardens
• Research on behavioral nudges

Pursue clinical research jobs to advance obesity solutions.

Real-World Cases: States and Campuses Fighting Back

In Mississippi, plateauing rates offer hope via local initiatives. California's Latino/Black women face 60% projections, spurring university-led food policy research.

Boston University bucks national trends with low campus rates through active transport, healthy options. Elon University's caloric intake study reinforces diet over exercise primacy.

Stakeholders—from HHS to campuses—unite: academics provide evidence, policymakers fund, communities implement.

Photo by Yimeng Zhao on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Reversible Path with Bold Interventions

While dire, trends aren't inevitable. Equitable GLP-1 access, built-environment reforms, early education can bend curves. Higher ed, via research like IHME's, positions as solution hub.

Explore Rate My Professor for public health faculty, higher ed jobs in wellness, career advice, university jobs. Post a position at /recruitment.

Optimism lies in action: informed by university science, America can defy projections.