In the evolving landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics, a groundbreaking paper by Ferid Belhaj, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South and former World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa, has captured attention. Titled "Tripartite Gulf Power: The Diverging Geoeconomics of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, and the Implications for MENA and the Global Order," the publication posits that the Gulf is transitioning from a monolithic bloc to a three-pillar system dominated by these three nations. Published on March 13, 2026, this analysis shifts focus from traditional security rivalries to geoeconomic strategies—where economic tools like infrastructure, sovereign wealth funds, and energy contracts define power.
Belhaj, with his extensive background in regional economics from roles at the World Bank managing programs in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Iran, brings unparalleled insight. His law degrees from Tunis Law School and Université Panthéon-Assas Paris II equip him to dissect how Saudi Arabia's scale-driven Vision 2030, the UAE's platform-state agility, and Qatar's niche LNG dominance are reshaping alliances. For UAE academics and policymakers, this paper is essential reading, highlighting Dubai and Abu Dhabi's roles in global connectivity via DP World ports and COP28 climate leadership.
The timing is prescient amid 2026 GCC statements on unity against Iranian threats and accelerating diversification efforts. As UAE universities like Zayed University and University of Sharjah expand international relations programs focusing on Gulf dynamics, Belhaj's work underscores the need for geoeconomics expertise.
🌍 The Evolution of Gulf Power: From Bloc to Tripartite Structure
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), formed in 1981, once symbolized unified oil wealth and security. However, the 2017–2021 Qatar blockade—led by Saudi Arabia and UAE—exposed fractures, evolving into geoeconomic divergence rather than reconciliation. Belhaj argues this is structural: Saudi Arabia centralizes via Public Investment Fund (PIF) megaprojects like NEOM; UAE decentralizes through networks; Qatar secures via contracts.
Post-blockade, diplomatic normalization masks competition in ports (e.g., UAE's DP World vs. Saudi's King Abdullah Port), corridors (IMEC 2023), and energy. UAE's 80+ DP World terminals span 40 countries, embodying platform power. This shift demands UAE higher education adapt curricula in economic diplomacy, as seen in Abu Dhabi Global Diplomacy Academy (AGDA) programs.
For aspiring scholars, explore academic CV tips to enter this field.
Saudi Arabia's Sovereign Scale Model
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 anchors its pillar on territorial industrialization. PIF directs trillions into mining, defense (e.g., SAMI), tourism (Red Sea Project), and logistics rivaling UAE hubs. Belhaj notes inward focus: Saudization policies, regulatory consolidation reduce foreign reliance.
Externally, IMEC challenges UAE-Dubai trade dominance. BRICS+ entry (2024) positions Riyadh as Global South voice in G20/IMF reforms. Stats: PIF assets grew 30% yearly (2023–24 report). UAE researchers at Khalifa University analyze these shifts in energy geoeconomics.
- Key megaprojects: NEOM ($500B+), Qiddiya entertainment city.
- Energy: Petrochemicals, green hydrogen for value capture.
- Implications: Pressures UAE on scale vs. agility.
Related reading: IIT Bombay sustainability skills.
UAE's Platform-State Ascendancy
The UAE exemplifies Belhaj's platform model: Abu Dhabi (energy capital) + Dubai (global interface). DP World's empire, Emirates/Etisalat networks, free zones drive interdependence. Climate broker: COP28 reframed transition as investment, securing oil revenues while greenwashing.
2026 developments: UAE AI/data hubs rival Saudi NEOM tech. Partnerships span US-China-India-Africa. For UAE unis like NYU Abu Dhabi, this boosts intl relations research. Programs at Middlesex Dubai MA IR&D emphasize such dynamics.
Stakeholders praise UAE's agility: "disproportionate influence" per Oxford Economics. Careers in policy? Check UAE academic jobs.
Photo by Pawel Czerwinski on Unsplash
Qatar's Niche Power Leverage
Qatar's LNG (22% global capacity) locks Europe/Asia via 20-year contracts post-2022 crisis. Al Jazeera, mediation (e.g., Gaza) amplify. Belhaj highlights triad: QatarEnergy, Airways, QIA ($500B+ assets).
Post-blockade diversification: Turkey ties, Africa investments. IEA notes LNG shapes EU decarbonization timelines. UAE views Qatar as mediator-complement, but competes in mediation.
Regional Ripples: MENA and Beyond
Tripartite rivalry fragments MENA: Turkey-Qatar industry axis; Pakistan Saudi leverage; India IMEC prize; Africa ports battle. Belhaj: multi-pillar system empowers middle powers.
UAE excels in Africa (Djibouti-Senegal ports), Saudi in Horn security. 2026 GCC Iran response shows coordination amid rivalry. UAE unis like AUS research GCC-Africa ties.
Read Belhaj's full paperGlobal Governance Shifts
Gulf as rule-shapers: Saudi BRICS/G20; UAE climate (COP28); Qatar energy norms. Belhaj: pluralized order sans hegemony.
For UAE: enhances soft power, attracts executive roles in intl orgs.
Implications for UAE Higher Education
Belhaj's thesis spotlights UAE unis' role in geoeconomics training. Zayed Univ BA Intl Studies (Gulf focus), AGDA PGD Diplomacy prepare talent. Research centers at Khalifa Univ study energy corridors.
Opportunities: faculty in IR/economics amid Vision 2031. Faculty positions booming.
Photo by MARIOLA GROBELSKA on Unsplash
- Programs: MA IR&D Middlesex Dubai.
- Research: NYUAD MENA studies.
- Careers: Policy analysts, economists.
Stakeholder Perspectives and Future Outlook
Experts echo Belhaj: CSIS notes UAE-Saudi rift self-solving via competition. 2026: AI rivalry intensifies, GCC unity vs. Iran.
Outlook: UAE platform sustains lead; balanced triad stabilizes MENA. Actionable: UAE academics publish on IMEC, green hydrogen.
Conclusion: Navigating the New Gulf Order
Belhaj's paper redefines Gulf dynamics, positioning UAE centrally. For educators, rate professors via Rate My Professor; seek higher ed jobs or career advice. Explore university jobs in UAE.
Download paper: PDF.