The Urgent Warning from EducationDynamics

In a bold declaration at their annual InsightsEDU conference, EducationDynamics (EDDY), a leading higher education marketing and enrollment firm, proclaimed that the traditional strategies for growing college enrollment in the United States are obsolete. The company's CEO, Brent Ramdin, stated that the "old growth formula"—reliant on linear enrollment funnels, siloed marketing tactics, and dependence on traditional-aged undergraduates—is dead. This comes amid mounting pressures from demographic shifts, economic uncertainty, and artificial intelligence (AI) reshaping how students discover and choose institutions.

Higher education leaders must now pivot to serve the "Modern Learner," a diverse group including adult returners, transfer students, and dual-enrollment high schoolers. EDDY's 2026 Landscape of Higher Education Report emphasizes that Fall 2025 marked the peak for traditional undergraduate enrollment, with a sustained decline looming as the nation grapples with the enrollment cliff.

Deciphering the Enrollment Cliff

The enrollment cliff refers to the projected sharp drop in the number of high school graduates available for college, stemming from the Great Recession's impact on birth rates between 2008 and 2010. According to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), the U.S. saw its largest high school graduating class in 2025, followed by steady declines through 2041—a potential 15% reduction in traditional college-age students by the mid-2030s.

Recent National Student Clearinghouse data confirms the trend's onset: while overall fall 2025 enrollment rose 1% to about 19.4 million students, new undergraduates over age 25 fell 15.5%, losing over 35,000 students, signaling broader challenges ahead. Institutions in the Northeast and Midwest, already facing regional demographic droughts, are hit hardest, prompting mergers, program cuts, and closures.

Economic Realities Fueling Enrollment Shifts

Beyond demographics, economic factors are eroding confidence in higher education's return on investment (ROI). With average student debt exceeding $30,000 and stagnant wage premiums for many degrees, prospective students demand proof of career outcomes before committing. EDDY notes that public perception of college value has eroded amid job market volatility and rising tuition costs unmoored from inflation.

The three C's—cost, convenience, and career outcomes—now define student priorities. Affordable community college pathways, stackable credentials, and online/hybrid options are surging, while four-year residential models struggle unless they demonstrate clear employability.

AI's Disruptive Role in Student Decision-Making

Artificial intelligence is accelerating these changes. EDDY's 2026 Modern Learner Report reveals that 51% of students use AI tools during school searches, with 60% of graduate prospects relying on it for program evaluation. Even after enrolling, 28% continue researching alternatives, creating a cycle of continuous evaluation.

AI synthesizes reviews, pricing, outcomes, and reputation instantly, bypassing traditional funnels. Institutions without "AI density"—optimized visibility in AI-driven searches—risk invisibility. EDDY launched its Intelligence Platform to counter this, featuring predictive modeling and real-time AI engagement agents.

Why the Old Growth Formula Failed

The legacy model assumed steady traditional student inflows, siloed undergrad/grad/adult strategies, and reputation as sufficient value signal. It featured slow CRM workflows, broad digital campaigns, and minimal personalization. This incrementalism thrived in stable times but crumbled under disruption.

• Reliance on 18-24-year-olds now untenable post-cliff.
• Ignored blurring lines between learner types.
• Failed to address ROI skepticism proactively.
• Underprepared for AI-mediated discovery.

As Ramdin notes, "Institutions no longer control information."

Photo by Dima Wuks on Unsplash

Defining the Modern Learner

Today's students defy categories: ambitious dual-enrollees (up 8.8%), 36 million "some college, no credential" adults, transfers seeking efficiency, and career-switchers prioritizing flexibility. They expect hyper-personalization, AI fluency, and pathways blending credentials into degrees.Crafting a strong academic CV can help these learners stand out in competitive job markets post-graduation.

United by demands for the three C's, they favor institutions proving value through alumni success stories and labor-aligned programs.

New Growth Strategies: Beyond Tradition

EDDY prescribes reinvention:

1. Portfolio Agility: Align programs with high-demand sectors using real-time labor data; retire low-ROI offerings.
2. Unified Branding: Single message emphasizing three C's across modalities.
3. Non-Trad Focus: Pipelines for dual enrollment, stackables for adults, credit recovery for stop-outs.
4. AI Leadership: Optimize for search visibility, deploy engagement agents.

Examples include community colleges expanding online bachelor's and universities like Southern New Hampshire University thriving on adult reskilling.NCES projections underscore the need.

Institutional Impacts and Adaptation Stories

Closures like those projected for 2026 highlight risks: small privates in declining regions face 20-30% drops. Success stories? Western Governors University grew via competency-based, online models for adults; Purdue Global leverages stackables.

Merger waves in New England show consolidation, but agile players invest in faculty positions in high-demand fields like AI and healthcare.

Future Outlook: Opportunities Amid Challenges

By 2031, undergraduate enrollment may stabilize via non-trads, but only for adapters. Deloitte forecasts AI-driven personalization and workforce partnerships as keys. Policymakers push Pell expansions for short-term credentials.

Actionable Insights for Stakeholders

• Admissions: Deploy AI agents for 24/7 personalization.
• Faculty: Integrate AI literacy; focus on human skills.
• Students: Explore scholarships and flexible paths; check Rate My Professor for insights.
• Leaders: Audit AI readiness; target ROI messaging.

Check higher ed jobs for roles in enrollment strategy.

Photo by Odd Fellow on Unsplash

In summary, EducationDynamics' warning signals a pivotal moment. By embracing Modern Learners, AI, and outcome-focused strategies, U.S. colleges can navigate the cliff toward sustainable growth. Explore opportunities at AcademicJobs.com higher ed jobs, Rate My Professor, and higher ed career advice to stay ahead.