The Dawn of Advanced Public Health Modelling at NUS

On February 27, 2026, the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health (SSHSPH) at the National University of Singapore (NUS) marked a pivotal moment in Singapore's higher education and public health landscape with the official launch of two groundbreaking research centres: the Centre for Epidemic Research and Modelling (CERM) and the Centre for Population Health Risk Informatics and Simulation Modelling (PHRISM). This event underscores NUS's commitment to addressing Singapore's evolving health challenges through cutting-edge research and evidence-based policymaking.

The launch ceremony, held at the Ngee Ann Kongsi Auditorium, brought together academics, policymakers, and health experts to celebrate these new hubs dedicated to mathematical and computational modelling. As Singapore grapples with infectious disease outbreaks like dengue and the rising tide of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes and cardiovascular conditions, these centres position NUS SSHSPH as a leader in predictive health analytics.

Established as Singapore's national School of Public Health since its formal opening in 2011, SSHSPH has been instrumental in training public health leaders and contributing to national responses, notably during the COVID-19 pandemic. The introduction of CERM and PHRISM builds on this legacy, enhancing the school's capacity to translate complex data into actionable insights for healthier communities.

Spotlight on CERM: Tackling Epidemics with Precision Modelling

The Centre for Epidemic Research and Modelling (CERM) stands at the forefront of combating infectious disease threats. Directed by Assistant Professor Hannah Clapham, who was appointed on February 23, 2026, CERM focuses on delivering real-time epidemiological insights and advanced predictive modelling. Clapham's expertise in infectious disease dynamics, honed through her work on arboviruses like dengue and Zika, makes her an ideal leader for this initiative.

CERM's mission is to bridge academic research and public health practice. By employing sophisticated mathematical models, the centre aims to forecast outbreak trajectories, evaluate intervention strategies, and support rapid response mechanisms. For instance, during Singapore's annual dengue seasons, where cases often exceed 30,000 annually, CERM's tools could optimize vector control and vaccination rollout.

"CERM will provide the analytical backbone for Singapore's epidemic preparedness," Clapham stated during the launch. Her vision includes fostering interdisciplinary collaborations and training the next generation of modellers through PhD programs and workshops.

PHRISM: Revolutionizing Population Health Risk Assessment

Complementing CERM, the Centre for Population Health Risk Informatics and Simulation Modelling (PHRISM), led by Associate Professor Alec Morton, targets the broader spectrum of population health risks. Morton, who holds a joint appointment at Duke-NUS Medical School, brings global expertise in health economics and decision modelling.

PHRISM employs simulation models to analyze health systems under stress from NCDs, ageing populations, and resource constraints. Singapore, with one of the world's fastest-ageing societies—projected to have 1 in 4 citizens over 65 by 2030—faces surging demands for chronic disease management. PHRISM's work will simulate scenarios like hospital bed shortages or policy shifts in diabetes care, where prevalence stands at 11.6% among adults.

The centre integrates big data, artificial intelligence, and informatics to create dynamic models that inform resource allocation and preventive strategies. Morton's prior contributions to cost-effectiveness analyses in global health position PHRISM to influence national budgets and Health Promotion Board initiatives.

The Launch Event: Key Highlights and Collaborations

The full-day event, themed "Modelling the Future of Health Systems," featured keynote speeches, panel discussions, and plaque unveilings by the centre directors alongside Dean Professor Yik-Ying Teo. Attendees explored how these centres will enhance Singapore's resilience against pandemics and chronic burdens.

Highlights included demonstrations of real-time dengue forecasting tools and systems dynamics models for NCD prevention. Guest speakers from the Ministry of Health (MOH) emphasized the centres' role in the Forward Singapore agenda, which prioritizes proactive health planning.

Future collaborations were announced, including partnerships with A*STAR and international bodies like the World Health Organization (WHO). These ties will facilitate data sharing and joint research, amplifying NUS's global impact.Read the official launch announcement.

Singapore's Public Health Landscape: Why Now?

Singapore's unique position—a densely populated city-state in the tropics—amplifies vulnerabilities. Infectious diseases like dengue (over 32,000 cases in 2025) and hand-foot-mouth disease persist, while NCDs account for 72% of deaths. The COVID-19 experience, where modelling guided circuit breaker measures and vaccination campaigns, highlighted the need for dedicated centres.

SSHSPH's contributions during the pandemic, including seroprevalence studies and transmission models, saved lives and informed regional strategies. With climate change exacerbating vector-borne diseases and an ageing demographic straining systems, CERM and PHRISM arrive at a critical juncture.

• Dengue: Annual economic cost exceeds S$500 million.
• Diabetes: Affects 500,000+ residents, with complications driving 20% of hospital admissions.
• Ageing: Healthcare spending projected to double by 2030.

The Power of Mathematical Modelling in Public Health

Epidemiological and systems modelling involves using mathematical equations to simulate disease spread (e.g., SIR models: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) and predict outcomes under various interventions. Step-by-step, modellers input parameters like reproduction number (R0), incubation periods, and intervention efficacy to forecast peaks and burdens.

In Singapore's COVID response, NUS models estimated that timely lockdowns averted 100,000+ cases. CERM extends this to endemic threats, while PHRISM applies microsimulation for personalized risk profiles, aiding precision public health.

Challenges include data quality and uncertainty quantification, which these centres address through Bayesian methods and machine learning integration.

Leadership Driving Innovation at SSHSPH

Dean Yik-Ying Teo, a genomics expert and former NEA CEO, oversees SSHSPH's strategic direction. His leadership during COVID positioned the school as a policy advisor. Directors Clapham and Morton exemplify interdisciplinary talent: Clapham's field epidemiology meets Morton's health economics.

The centres will mentor students and postdocs, offering hands-on projects. For aspiring researchers, this opens doors to impactful careers in academia and government.

Broader Impacts: Policy, Training, and Global Reach

Beyond research, CERM and PHRISM will train modellers via MSc/PhD programs and executive courses. They support MOH's pandemic preparedness framework and ASEAN health security.

Expected outcomes include optimized vaccination schedules, cost-effective NCD interventions, and climate-resilient strategies. Real-world cases: Modelling informed Japan's mpox response; similar tools could guide Singapore's.

Career Opportunities in Singapore's Public Health Research

The launch signals expanding roles for modellers, data scientists, and epidemiologists. NUS SSHSPH seeks postdocs, research assistants, and faculty. Singapore's vibrant ecosystem, with incentives like the Research Innovation Fellowship, attracts global talent.

Professionals can find positions via platforms like research jobs or postdoc opportunities. Students interested in public health minors or majors should check NUS admissions.

For career advice, visit higher ed career advice and rate my professor for insights on SSHSPH faculty.

Photo by Albert Vincent Wu on Unsplash

Looking Ahead: A Model for Regional Health Security

CERM and PHRISM position NUS as Asia's modelling powerhouse, fostering innovations like AI-enhanced forecasts. Challenges like antimicrobial resistance and mental health will benefit from integrated approaches.

Stakeholders praise the initiative: MOH officials note its alignment with national priorities, while academics highlight training impacts. As Singapore advances its Healthier SG vision, these centres promise data-driven progress.

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