Recent Clashes Ignite Tensions in Southern Yemen

The fragile alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in Yemen, forged in 2015 as part of the Saudi-led coalition against Houthi rebels (formally known as Ansar Allah), has shown deep cracks in late 2025 and early 2026. Southern Yemen, particularly areas like Hadramaut, Mukalla, and Al-Mahrah, became the flashpoint for direct confrontations between forces backed by the two Gulf powers. UAE-supported Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatists clashed with Saudi-backed Yemeni government troops, escalating into what analysts describe as proxy battles turning overt.

In December 2025, Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes on the port of Mukalla, a strategic southern hub controlled by STC forces. Riyadh justified the strikes as targeting a weapons shipment intended for separatists, aiming to prevent instability along its southern border. This marked a rare direct military action between allies, signaling Riyadh's frustration with Abu Dhabi's perceived support for separatist ambitions that challenge Yemen's unity under the Saudi-favored government.

The clashes disrupted local economies reliant on ports like Mukalla for trade and aid, exacerbating Yemen's humanitarian crisis where over 18 million people need assistance, according to United Nations reports. Eyewitness accounts from the region described heavy artillery exchanges and civilian evacuations, underscoring the human cost of this intra-coalition rift.

Saudi Ultimatum and Airstrike Escalation

Following the initial strikes, Saudi Arabia issued a stark 24-hour ultimatum to the UAE on December 30, 2025, demanding the withdrawal of all UAE forces from Yemen and cessation of military and financial support to factions like the STC. When the deadline passed without compliance, fresh Saudi airstrikes targeted UAE-backed positions near Al-Qatn in Hadramaut and the Al-Ghaydah axis in Al-Mahrah governorate.

These actions represented a coordinated campaign by Riyadh to roll back UAE influence in southern Yemen, areas critical for Saudi border security and oil transit routes. Saudi state media detailed the bombings, framing them as defensive measures against 'separatist threats.' The strikes reportedly damaged infrastructure, including potential weapons depots, though exact casualties remain unverified amid conflicting reports.

This escalation prompted widespread speculation on social media platforms like X, where users highlighted the risk of a full-scale Gulf conflict. Posts reflected regional anxieties, with some questioning alignments for countries like Pakistan, torn between its defense ties to Saudi Arabia and economic debts to the UAE.

UAE's Swift Withdrawal Announcement

In response to the Saudi strikes, the UAE announced on December 30, 2025, its intention to pull out remaining forces from Yemen, a move confirmed hours after the Mukalla attack. UAE officials denied accusations of arming separatists and called for restraint, positioning the withdrawal as a de-escalatory step amid the 'rapidly moving crisis.'

The UAE's military presence in Yemen had dwindled since 2019, shifting to backing local security forces and private militias aligned with the STC. This pullout, while symbolic, leaves UAE influence intact through proxies, but it underscores Abu Dhabi's unwillingness to engage in direct confrontation with Riyadh. Southern separatists welcomed Saudi calls for dialogue shortly after, hinting at potential mediation.

From a UAE perspective, the withdrawal protects national interests, avoiding entanglement in Saudi-led operations while preserving leverage in Aden and southern ports. However, it raises questions about the future of UAE-backed governance in these areas, vital for countering Houthi expansion and securing maritime routes.

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Separatists' Push for Independence and Dialogue

Yemen's STC separatists, who control much of Aden and southern provinces, responded to the violence by reiterating demands for independence while cautiously welcoming Saudi dialogue overtures on January 3, 2026. Accusing Saudi Arabia of airstrikes on their positions, the STC framed the conflict as an external imposition on their self-determination aspirations.

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government labeled operations as 'peaceful' to reclaim military sites, blocking STC delegations in Aden. This infighting complicates the UN-led peace process, stalled since the 2022 truce, as factions prioritize territorial control over national reconciliation.

STC's actions, including an independence bid, highlight long-standing southern grievances against Sana'a's northern dominance, fueled by economic marginalization and the 1994 civil war. UAE support has enabled STC governance, but recent events test this partnership.

Intensifying Media Attacks Signal Deeper Rift

Beyond the battlefield, a media war has erupted, with Saudi state channels like Al Ekhbariya accusing the UAE of human rights abuses and destabilizing actions in Yemen as of January 22, 2026. Reports targeted UAE policies, reigniting tensions post-withdrawal.

This escalation, noted in recent analyses, portrays the UAE as undermining Saudi leadership in the coalition. UAE media has remained relatively restrained, focusing on national achievements, but the Saudi barrage—linked to Yemen developments—indicates a broader rivalry over regional influence.

Social media sentiment on X amplifies this, with posts decrying the shift from alliance to confrontation. Experts view it as a 'structural conflict' over Yemen's future, with implications for Gulf unity. For those studying media geopolitics, resources like how to write a winning academic CV can aid in publishing on such topics.

Photo by Alicja Ziajowska on Unsplash

Historical Context of the Saudi-UAE Partnership

The Saudi-UAE axis formed in March 2015 when the UAE joined the coalition intervening in Yemen to restore President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi after Houthi takeover of Sana'a. Initial successes included recapturing Aden, but divergences emerged by 2019: UAE prioritized anti-Islah (Muslim Brotherhood-linked) efforts and STC empowerment, while Saudi focused on Houthis.

Timeline of tensions:

• 2019: UAE partial drawdown, STC self-rule declaration in Aden.
• 2020-2022: Truces mask proxy clashes.
• 2025: Border incidents escalate to airstrikes.
• 2026: Media salvos deepen divide.

This history reveals competing visions: Saudi pan-Yemeni unity vs. UAE federalism favoring south.

Implications for Yemen's Peace Process

The rift jeopardizes fragile ceasefires, empowering Houthis who control Sana'a and Red Sea approaches. UN envoy calls for dialogue risk failure amid trust deficits. Saudi's campaign aims to stabilize its border, but alienates southern allies, potentially fragmenting Yemen further.

Humanitarian fallout: Disrupted ports hinder aid, with Yemen facing famine risks. Economically, oil exports via Bab al-Mandeb could suffer if clashes spread.

Regional and Global Repercussions

For the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), unity frays, impacting joint defenses against Iran. UAE's Abraham Accords ties with Israel contrast Saudi caution, adding layers. US watches closely, balancing arms sales to both.

Oil markets volatile: Tensions near Straits of Hormuz raise prices 5% in January 2026. Pakistan's dilemma—Saudi arms vs. UAE loans—exemplifies ripple effects.

Stakeholder views:

• Saudi: Protecting sovereignty.
• UAE: Supporting legitimate aspirations.
• Separatists: Path to independence.
• Houthis: Exploiting divisions.

Economic and Security Impacts on UAE

In the UAE, the rift prompts security reassessments, boosting domestic defenses while maintaining proxy influence. Economically, diversified beyond oil, UAE faces minimal direct hit but risks investor confidence in Gulf stability.

Ports like Jebel Ali benefit from Yemen diversions, but Red Sea threats persist. For UAE academics researching conflict economics, such dynamics offer rich case studies.

Future Outlook and Potential Pathways

Reconciliation possible via Oman-mediated talks, given shared anti-Houthi goals. However, unresolved STC ambitions and media barbs suggest prolonged cold war. Worst-case: Open clashes disrupting 10% global trade via Red Sea.

Solutions:

• Revive Stockholm Agreement implementations.
• US/UN pressure for unity.
• Joint economic zones in south Yemen.

Optimists point to past reconciliations post-Qatar crisis.

Photo by Fatemeh Rezvani on Unsplash

Expert Perspectives and Analyses

Think tanks like Chatham House warn of 'dramatic regional shift,' upending fragile states. Al Jazeera reports detail Saudi accusations, while Guardian covers bombings. X sentiment mixes alarm and analysis, with users noting Israel-UAE ties complicating dynamics.

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Conclusion: Navigating the Uncertain Horizon

The Saudi-UAE rift over Yemen exemplifies how proxy wars evolve into direct rivalries, with media attacks amplifying divides. Balanced diplomacy offers hope, but vigilance required. Researchers and policymakers should monitor developments closely.

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