Unveiling the Study: Population Ageing as the Dominant Driver
A groundbreaking study published in September 2025 in Science of the Total Environment has identified population ageing as the primary factor driving future increases in air pollution-related mortality in Greece, even as air quality improves. Titled "The future health burden of air pollution in Greece and the associated drivers," this research, led by scientists from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki's Department of Meteorology and Climatology, projects alarming rises in premature deaths linked to fine particulate matter (PM2.5, particles with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller that can penetrate deep into the lungs) and ground-level ozone (O3, a reactive gas formed by sunlight reacting with pollutants from vehicles and industry).
The baseline in 2000 showed approximately 7,900 annual deaths from PM2.5 exposure, equivalent to 76 deaths per 100,000 population. By 2090, these figures are expected to double under optimistic and moderate climate scenarios, underscoring how demographic shifts outweigh pollution reductions. This work provides the first decomposition analysis for Greece, breaking down mortality changes into population size variations, ageing effects, and pollutant concentration shifts across the country's 13 administrative regions.
Conducted under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—SSP1-2.6 (sustainability with strong mitigation), SSP2-4.5 (middle-of-the-road), and SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry with high emissions)—the study utilized bias-corrected simulations from the GFDL-ESM4 model in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). These projections integrate future demographic data, revealing Greece's average population age rising from 42 in 2000 to 54-57 years by 2090.
Current Air Pollution Landscape in Greece
Greece currently grapples with elevated PM2.5 levels, particularly in urban hubs like Thessaloniki and Athens (Attica region). Real-time data from early 2026 shows Thessaloniki's PM2.5 averaging 14-33.5 μg/m³, often exceeding the World Health Organization's (WHO) annual guideline of 5 μg/m³. Ozone episodes are common during summer, driven by Mediterranean photochemistry, vehicle emissions, and transboundary pollution. Attica, home to 3.75 million residents (over one-third of Greece's population), and Central Macedonia (1.9 million, including Thessaloniki) bear the brunt, with PM2.5 concentrations frequently surpassing EU limits of 25 μg/m³ annual mean.
These pollutants exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, with elderly individuals—now comprising 23.3% of the population aged 65+—facing heightened vulnerability due to reduced lung function and comorbidities. Greece's rapid ageing, projected to see 34% over 65 by 2060, amplifies this risk nationwide.
Projections: How Mortality Evolves by 2090
Under all SSPs, PM2.5-attributable deaths are forecasted to rise despite declining concentrations, primarily from ageing. In SSP1-2.6, national PM2.5 mortality doubles to around 15,800 deaths annually by 2090. Ozone deaths exceed 1,000 per year (10 per 100,000) in SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 but drop near zero in SSP1-2.6 thanks to stringent controls.
| Scenario | PM2.5 Deaths (2090) | O3 Deaths (2090) | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| SSP1-2.6 | Double (∼15,800) | Near 0 | Ageing |
| SSP2-4.5 | Double | >1,000 | Ageing + O3 |
| SSP3-7.0 | ×1.7-2.7 | >1,000 | Ageing dominant |
In Attica, PM2.5 deaths surge by 6,000 (200%) to 8,800 (CI: 3,600-18,000) under SSP1-2.6. Central Macedonia sees sharp O3 increases of 85-120%.
Dissecting the Drivers: Ageing Trumps Improvements
The study's innovation lies in decomposing mortality changes: total shift = population change + ageing effect + pollutant change. Ageing consistently dominates, countering population decline (Greece projected to lose 1.3-1.5 million by 2050) and air quality gains. For PM2.5, pollutant reductions partially offset ageing, but not enough; for O3, climate penalties exacerbate rises in higher-emission paths.
- Population change: Shrinking total numbers reduce baseline risk.
- Ageing: Higher proportion of vulnerable elderly boosts mortality rates.
- Pollutant levels: Declines from policies, but insufficient against demographics.
Spotlight on Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
At the forefront is Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTH), Greece's largest university, where lead author Dimitris Akritidis and colleagues from the Department of Meteorology and Climatology conducted this vital work. Collaborating with the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (Germany), and University of Helsinki (Finland), AUTH's Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics exemplifies European higher education's role in tackling climate-health intersections.
AUTH boasts specialized labs like the Environmental Pollution Control Laboratory in the School of Chemistry, focusing on urban aerosols and health impacts. Aspiring researchers can explore research positions in meteorology and climatology or pursue higher education careers via AcademicJobs.com's higher ed jobs in Europe.
Regional Hotspots: Attica and Central Macedonia Under Pressure
Attica, encompassing Athens, faces the heaviest burden due to dense population and traffic emissions. Projections show PM2.5 deaths nearly tripling in relative terms. Central Macedonia, around Thessaloniki, contends with industrial sources and Saharan dust inflows, amplifying O3 risks. Less populous regions like Crete see milder increases, but ageing affects all.
Methodological Rigor: Modeling Future Scenarios Step-by-Step
Researchers bias-corrected CMIP6 outputs for Greece-specific accuracy, then applied the Global Burden of Disease integrated risk function for excess mortality. Demographic inputs from SSPs accounted for fertility, migration, and longevity trends. Decomposition used logarithmic differentiation to isolate drivers, validated against 2000-2020 observations. This robust approach offers policymakers granular, region-specific insights.
Policy Responses: EU and Greek Strategies
The EU's Zero Pollution Action Plan aims to cut air pollution deaths by 55% by 2030, with revised Ambient Air Quality Directive tightening PM2.5 to 10 μg/m³ by 2030. Greece must accelerate: phasing out solid fuels, expanding electric vehicles, and metro networks in Athens and Thessaloniki. Integrated policies blending air quality with elderly care are urged.EU Commission summary
Mitigation Strategies: Protecting the Vulnerable Elderly
To counter ageing-driven risks:
- Enhance urban green spaces to filter PM2.5 and cool O3 formation.
- Promote low-emission transport: EVs, public transit incentives.
- Targeted interventions for seniors: air purifiers, stay-indoors alerts during peaks.
- Renewables expansion to cut energy-related emissions.
- Healthcare: bolster respiratory clinics in high-burden regions.
Personal steps include N95 masks outdoors and avoiding biomass burning. For professionals, career advice on environmental health roles is available.
European Parallels and Future Research Avenues
Similar trends plague Europe: ageing amplifies PM2.5 burdens in Italy, Spain. AUTH's work inspires pan-EU studies. Opportunities abound in European university jobs, particularly research assistant positions modeling climate-pollution interactions. Explore professor salaries and rankings via our resources.
Call to Action: Advancing Knowledge and Careers
This research underscores the urgency for interdisciplinary efforts in higher education. Institutions like AUTH are pivotal. Job seekers, check higher ed jobs, university jobs, and rate your professors. Policymakers must act now for a healthier Greece.
For the full study, visit ScienceDirect.
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