Understanding the New NZCER Research for the Royal Commission
The Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned, known as Te Tira Ārai Urutā, has released its Phase Two report, shedding light on the pandemic's enduring effects on Aotearoa New Zealand's education system. A pivotal piece of this analysis is new research from the New Zealand Council for Educational Research (NZCER), examining the COVID-19 impact on school reading and maths achievement. This study leverages data from over 850,000 Progressive Achievement Tests (PATs)—standardized assessments tracking student progress in reading comprehension and mathematics from Years 4 to 10—spanning 2019 to 2024. By comparing trends in Auckland, which faced extended lockdowns, to the rest of the country, researchers employed a difference-in-differences approach with linear mixed-effects models, adjusting for factors like year level, gender, ethnicity, and school socioeconomic status via the Equity Index.
While New Zealand's school disruptions were shorter than many nations, the findings reveal nuanced, persistent challenges, particularly in reading, underscoring the need for targeted interventions in foundational skills essential for future academic success.
Progressive Achievement Tests: Measuring True Learning Progress
PATs, developed by NZCER, are nationally normed, multiple-choice assessments administered online or on paper, providing scale scores that enable precise tracking of student growth over time. Unlike one-off snapshots, PAT scale scores allow comparisons across years, revealing whether students are accelerating, maintaining, or falling behind expected trajectories. Reading Comprehension PATs gauge understanding of texts, inferences, and vocabulary, while Mathematics PATs assess number operations, algebra, geometry, and problem-solving.
This robust dataset offers a reliable lens into pandemic-era learning, free from the volatility of high-stakes exams, and highlights how disruptions compounded existing inequities without the dramatic collapses seen elsewhere.
Maths Achievement: A Swift but Uneven Recovery
Nationally, mathematics scores dipped in 2020 and 2021 amid initial lockdowns and remote learning shifts but rebounded to pre-pandemic averages by 2022. However, Auckland students, hit by prolonged closures in 2021, showed a sharper relative decline that lingered in schools serving higher-barrier communities—those with elevated Equity Index scores reflecting greater socioeconomic challenges.
Māori and Pasifika learners experienced more persistent gaps, with slower catch-up compared to Pākehā or Asian peers. Girls and boys both faced the 2021 Auckland dip, but it largely resolved nationally by 2022. This resilience stems from New Zealand's early pivot to online platforms and rapid school reopenings, minimizing total lost instruction time.
- 2020-2021: National decline aligned with global patterns.
- 2022: Recovery to 2019 baselines for most groups.
- Persistent needs: High-barrier Auckland schools and priority learners.
Reading Comprehension: No Full Rebound in Sight
Unlike maths, reading comprehension scores began a slight multi-year decline from 2020, persisting through 2023 without returning to pre-COVID trajectories. This national trend predates the pandemic, suggesting school closures exacerbated but did not solely cause the downturn. Auckland saw a temporary 2021 dip that normalized, but overall, girls experienced a marginally steeper national slide, while boys had a more pronounced Auckland effect.
New Zealand European and Māori students mirrored the mild decline; North Asian learners actually improved; South and Southeast Asian and Pasifika held steady near baselines. These patterns signal reading as a foundational vulnerability warranting sustained, systemic attention beyond pandemic blame.
Disparities Amplified: Socioeconomic and Ethnic Patterns
Higher-barrier schools, often in Auckland, bore the brunt, with maths recovery lagging and reading declines compounding pre-existing gaps. Māori and Pasifika students, overrepresented in these contexts, faced heightened risks, reflecting broader inequities in access to home learning resources, digital devices, and whānau support during lockdowns.
The Equity Index—a composite of school decile, student ethnicity, and mobility—pinpointed these vulnerabilities, emphasizing how pandemic measures inadvertently widened divides despite equitable intentions. For aspiring educators preparing in New Zealand universities, these insights highlight the urgency of culturally responsive training.Explore career paths in education research.
Photo by Te Pania ♡ on Unsplash
| Group | Maths Impact | Reading Impact |
|---|---|---|
| National Average | Recovered by 2022 | Ongoing decline |
| Auckland High-Barrier | Persistent gaps | Pre-exacerbated decline |
| Māori/Pasifika | Slower recovery | Mild decline |
Global Context: NZ's Modest Losses Amid Worldwide Crisis
Internationally, COVID-19 triggered substantial learning losses—e.g., U.S. students lost 0.2-0.5 standard deviations (SD) in reading and maths, equivalent to 0.5-1 year. PISA 2022 confirmed NZ declines (maths -24 points, reading -18), but proportional to global shocks, NZ's were tempered by brief closures (average 10 weeks vs. 20+ elsewhere).
Australia and UK saw similar patterns, but NZ's elimination strategy preserved face-to-face time. Still, attendance plummeted to 40% in 2022 Term 2 (from 58% pre-COVID), delaying recovery and underscoring indirect effects like chronic absenteeism.Read the full NZCER report.
Attendance Decline and Broader Educational Fallout
School attendance, a key learning predictor, took nearly four years to normalize, per Education Review Office 2025 data. Low attendance correlated with achievement dips, especially in priority communities. Mental health strains and whānau hardships compounded this, though direct pandemic links to long-term outcomes like NCEA or earnings remain understudied.
The Royal Commission notes educators' adaptability—online transitions, community hubs—but calls for better pre-planning in future crises.
Pre-Pandemic Trends: Reading Challenges Predate COVID
Reading's stagnation traces to before 2020, per longitudinal PAT data, possibly tied to curriculum emphases, teacher workloads, or digital distractions. COVID amplified this, but recovery demands addressing root causes like phonics instruction debates and vocabulary gaps. Maths' quicker bounce-back aligns with structured interventions post-lockdown.
Explore Royal Commission findings.
Policy Implications and Recommendations
NZCER urges sustained maths catch-up for vulnerable groups via targeted tuition. For reading, holistic strategies beyond closures—e.g., evidence-based literacy programs. The Commission recommends agencies evaluate pandemic service impacts, prioritize recovery research, and ensure essential education continuity in crises.
- Targeted tutoring in high-need schools.
- Monitor long-term trajectories with PAT-like tools.
- Equity-focused funding for Māori/Pasifika initiatives.
Higher Education's Role in School Recovery
Universities like Auckland and Otago, partnering with NZCER, drive such research while training future teachers. Initial Teacher Education programs now integrate pandemic lessons, emphasizing resilience and equity. Researchers in education faculties analyze data to inform policy, bridging school-university divides.Discover higher ed jobs in teaching and research.
Pathways Forward: Actionable Insights for Stakeholders
Parents can support home reading routines; schools implement daily maths blocks; policymakers fund universal diagnostics. Promising pilots like structured literacy show gains. With proactive measures, Aotearoa can not only recover but exceed pre-COVID benchmarks, ensuring every tamariki thrives.
For educators eyeing university pathways, resources abound.Access higher ed career advice and rate my professor for insights. Explore university jobs or higher ed jobs to contribute to recovery efforts. Post a vacancy at /recruitment.