Exploring Weather Events Affecting The Health and Emergency intensive care admissions of children using Routine data: the WEATHER study

About the Project

Background: Climate change and air pollution pose a significant global challenge, disproportionately affecting the health and lives of children.1 Despite lifelong exposure, little is known about how weather impacts children, even though air pollution, which is closely linked with weather, harms every organ in the body.

Each year there are ~18,000 admissions to paediatric intensive care units (PICU) in the UK. Many of the children admitted to PICU have multiple lifelong conditions. Every admission to PICU for over 20 years has been collected by the Paediatric Intensive Care Audit Network (PICANet: SS is co-PI of PICANet).2 This data can be linked with weather and pollution information from The Met Office. Admissions to PICU have a strong seasonal variation with higher rates of emergency respiratory admissions in winter, leading to severe capacity issues within the NHS. Despite this, there has been limited research exploring the impact of weather and pollution on children admitted to PICU.2, 3

Aim: To explore the association between weather events on emergency admissions to PICU

Research questions:

1. Has there has been a changing impact of (a) weather and (b) air pollution on the rate and severity of illness in children admitted to PICU and their outcomes over time?
2. What are the projections of future PICU need under different scenarios of future climate change?

Methods: The student will use distributed lag non-linear models or equivalent approaches with an interaction between the effect of weather and time. This methodology allows consideration of a time series based on the values of an explanatory variable (in our case pollution or weather) to have an effect not just when it is observed, but also delayed over a period of time. This method is appropriate as evidence has suggested that the impact of weather and/or pollution is likely to be delayed rather than immediate.

Proposed Impact: We will maximise translation of our findings to have profound real-world impact, by leveraging our extensive networks and contacts for diverse reach. We will engage with policymakers; the NHS; children and families and the public to ensure the outcomes of this PhD benefit future generations.

Training opportunities

The student will be based in the well-respected School of Healthcare at the University of Leicester. We have a highly collaborative working environment, with weekly seminar or journal clubs to discuss new and emerging research. The student will have access to high-quality training through the University of Leicester’s masterclass series which is designed to provide all students with strong foundations in research methods. We will also introduce to student to external organisations (e.g., Health Data Research East Midlands) to enhance their collaborations and opportunities.