Modelling the Impact of Air Conditioning Demand on the Future UK Electricity System

About the Project

The UK electricity system is currently undergoing significant transformation as the country moves towards a low-carbon and more sustainable energy future. Increasing electrification of transport, heating, and industry is expected to place new pressures on electricity generation and network infrastructure over the coming decades. At the same time, climate change is likely to alter patterns of energy demand, particularly through increased use of air conditioning and cooling technologies during warmer summers and more frequent heatwaves. Although air conditioning has historically played a relatively small role in UK electricity demand, rising temperatures and changing expectations of indoor comfort may lead to substantial growth in cooling demand in residential, commercial, and public buildings.

This PhD project will explore how increasing use of air conditioning could affect the future UK electricity system. The research will focus on understanding how cooling demand may evolve under different future scenarios and how this demand interacts with broader changes taking place across the energy system. The project aims to contribute to long-term energy planning by examining how climate-related changes in electricity consumption could influence system operation, infrastructure requirements, and decarbonisation strategies.

The research will involve the development of models to simulate future electricity demand and supply under a range of assumptions relating to climate, technology uptake, and energy policy. Particular attention will be given to the seasonal and daily variation of cooling demand and its potential contribution to future peak electricity loads. The project may also examine how increased cooling demand aligns with renewable electricity generation patterns and the possible implications for electricity system flexibility and reliability.

A range of modelling approaches may be used, including energy system modelling, demand forecasting, and scenario analysis. These methods will help assess the potential impacts of air conditioning adoption on electricity generation, network capacity, and overall system performance. The research may also consider the influence of factors such as population growth, urbanisation, building efficiency improvements, and behavioural change on future cooling demand.

In addition to analysing electricity demand growth, the project will investigate possible strategies for managing increased cooling-related loads in a sustainable manner. This could include exploring the role of energy efficiency measures, demand-side response, thermal storage, and smart technologies in reducing pressure on the electricity system. The interaction between cooling demand and wider decarbonisation objectives will also form an important part of the study.

The outcomes of this research are expected to provide insights into how the UK electricity system may need to adapt to changing climatic and societal conditions. By improving understanding of the relationship between climate change and future electricity demand, the project will support policymakers, energy planners, and network operators in developing more resilient and sustainable energy strategies. The findings could also contribute to broader discussions surrounding climate adaptation, infrastructure planning, and the transition to a low-carbon economy.

Eligibility:

• Applicants should have a good Bachelor’s degree (minimum of a UK Upper Second (2:1) or equivalent)/Master’s degree in an Architecture, Engineering, Construction or strongly-related discipline.
• International applicants will also need to meet the University’s English Language requirements. We offer pre-sessional English courses that can help with meeting these requirements.

*The University of Reading is committed to a policy of equal opportunities and non-discriminatory treatment for all members of its community.*

How to apply:

Submit an application for a PhD in Construction Management via our online application system

Further information:

Construction Management and Engineering PhD webpage

Enquiries:

Dr Rory Jones email : r.v.jones@reading.ac.uk

Funding Notes

We welcome applications from self-funded students worldwide for this project.

If you are applying to an international funding scheme, we encourage you to get in contact as we may be able to support you in your application.