Spatial Association Modelling for Predicting and Forecasting Hazard Risks

About the Project

Climate led hazards do not occur randomly in space. They cluster, propagate, and interact across landscapes, communities, and infrastructure networks. Spatial association the statistical relationship between what happens in one location and what happens nearby—is therefore fundamental to any system that aims to forecast risks and issue timely warnings. The successful candidate is expected to acquire mathematical and statistical skills for developing advanced modelling framework to capture the spatial behaviour of climate induced hazards and interdependence of climatic variables hazards (over space).

This PhD project will investigate spatial association as a foundational concept for understanding and predicting hazard risks, by integrating spatial statistics, geospatial data science, and risk modelling approaches. As current review shows (ref. Bhattacharjee & Bose 2026) there is a clear lack of such measures even in uni-variable set-up, and thus requires extension of the conceptual framework of spatial association to higher-dimensions.

By integrating spatial statistics, climate science, and risk modelling, the project aims to advance our ability to detect emerging hotspots, understand cascading hazard pathways, and improve predictive models for multihazard risk

The i-Risk Doctoral Focal Award

i-Risk PhD research offers a unique opportunity to contribute to the generation of new knowledge in the forefront of informatics. i-Risk cohorts will advance understanding and deliver innovative tools and solutions for multi-hazard systemic risk resilience and sustainability practice. Doctoral Researchers will undertake a structured training programme and partner co-created interdisciplinary research projects.

Our Vision

The vision of i-Risk is to train the next generation of research practitioners and leaders who will be at the forefront of collaborative research and:

1. Integrate informatics with understanding of evolving risk throughout the environment
2. Collaborate with a broad range of partners from industry, government agencies, global organisations (e.g., the United Nations) and Non-Government Organisations to ensure research directly informs policy and practice, delivering widespread impact.

Core Research Themes

i-Risk builds on 4 leading UK institution’s long-standing strengths at the vanguard of informatics, multi-hazard risk, and resilience research, with unparalleled facilities and >70 multidisciplinary academic supervisors for subject-specific support, providing students with an exceptional research environment.

i-Risk has four core research themes:

Observations, monitoring and understanding

Deploying nascent technologies and intelligent observation/monitoring/experimental approaches to gather rich data to understand evolving hazards.

Modelling and understanding processes/risk

Developing data analytics approaches/tools to model and understand intertwined natural, social, and engineering systems, enabling analysis and characterisation of multi-hazard systemic risks.

Forecasting, prediction and early warning

Predicting and forecasting hazard risks for timely, reliable warnings, facilitating elective risk mitigation and community/infrastructure resilience.

Risk communication and management solutions

Delivering innovative tools and solutions supporting sustainable multi-hazard systemic risk management, rendering hazard/risk information accessible to/intelligible by end-users/stakeholders, advancing sustainability practice and policy

Eligibility

Applicants should have, or expect to achieve, an excellent academic record (UK First-class or 2.1 honours or international equivalent depending on the funding source) in Mathematics, Engineering, Earth Sciences, Computing or another related physical science discipline (MSc, MSci or BSc).

Applicants should have a strong quantitative background in applied mathematics, physics, engineering, or a related discipline. They should be confident in R or other mathematical programming.

How to apply

You will need to submit an online application through our website here: https://uom.link/pgr-apply

Please quote the advert reference IRISK-26-UOM05 in your application. This PhD is being advertised as part of the Informatics for Multi-hazard Risk and Resilience (i-Risk) NERC Doctoral Focal Awards (DFA) in the Environmental Sciences.

Further details about i-Risk can be seen on their website https://github.com/i-risk-dfa.

Please note that your application will be assessed upon:

• Motivation and Career Aspirations
• Potential & Intellectual Excellence
• Suitability for specific project
• Fit to i-Risk

Please familiarise yourselves with i-Risk before applying. During the application process candidates will need to upload:

• A two-page personal statement split into two sections:
  • one page dedicated to your research interests in informatics and disaster risk reduction, the i-Risk DFA and your rationale for your choice of project
  • one page dedicated to answering the following questions:
1. Tell us about a time when you identified a new approach to a problem. What was your decision-making process? (~150 words)
2. Tell us about a time where you have performed data analytics. What was the task? What made it difficult? How did you handle it? (~150 words)
3. Tell us about a goal have you set for yourself that you have successfully achieved. How did you stay motivated? (~150 words)
4. Describe a situation where you demonstrated that you can constructively handle setbacks. How did you troubleshoot the problem? (~150 words)
• A curriculum vitae giving details of your academic record and stating your research interests
• Academic transcripts and degree certificates (translated if not in English)
• Interim Transcript of any university level qualifications in progress
• You will be asked to supply contact details for two referees on the application form (please make sure that the contact email you provide is an official university/ work email address as we may need to verify the reference)
• English Language certificate (if applicable)
• Supporting statement: A one or two page statement outlining your motivation to pursue postgraduate research and why you want to undertake postgraduate research at Manchester, any relevant research or work experience, the key findings of your previous research experience, and techniques and skills you’ve developed. (This is mandatory for all applicants and the application will be put on hold without it).

You are encouraged to contact potential supervisors by email to discuss project specific aspects of the proposed project prior to submitting your application. If you have any general questions please contact irisk@mailbox.lboro.ac.uk. If you have any technical questions about making an application, please contact our admissions team by emailing FSE.doctoralacademy.admissions@manchester.ac.uk.

Your application will not be processed without all of the required documents submitted at the time of application, and we cannot accept responsibility for late or missed deadlines. Incomplete applications will not be considered.

Please note that interviews are anticipated to be held remotely via Microsoft Teams week commencing 29June 2026.

Funding Notes

This 3.5-year PhD studentship is funded by the NERC i-Risk DFA and is open to Home (UK) and overseas students. The successful candidate will receive an annual tax-free stipend set at the UKRI rate (£21,805 for 2026/27; subject to annual uplift), and tuition fees will be paid. We expect the stipend to increase each year. The start date is October 2026.

We recommend that you apply early as the advert may be removed before the deadline.