Prospective college students often spend months researching academics, costs, and campus life before deciding where to apply. But one overlooked factor can sway their choices: the weather during a campus tour. A recent analysis highlighted in the Wall Street Journal reveals that rainy or otherwise unpleasant conditions on visit days correlate with significantly lower application rates, potentially contributing to enrollment challenges at U.S. universities.

Campus tours remain a cornerstone of the college decision process. Surveys indicate that around 82 percent of high school sophomores and juniors plan to visit campuses, though only about 48 percent of seniors actually do so. Yet, 95 percent of admissions staff report that tours play a crucial role in influencing enrollment decisions. In a competitive landscape where overall undergraduate enrollment ticked up slightly in 2026—driven by community colleges and public four-year institutions—small edges like optimal tour conditions matter more than ever.

🌤️ The Amherst College Study Unveils Weather's Hidden Role

Economists at Amherst College—Olivia Feldman, Joshua M. Hyman, and Matthew L. McGann—conducted a rigorous analysis using administrative data from a highly selective Northeastern university. Covering summer 2016 to fall 2024, the study tracked 47,094 tour participants, linking their visit times to hourly weather data from Visual Crossing Corporation. By comparing application rates on sunny versus inclement days, controlling for seasonal and temporal fixed effects, they isolated weather as an exogenous shock to students' "feel" for the campus.

The baseline application rate was 28.8 percent. Poor weather systematically reduced this, with no corresponding drop in final enrollment outcomes. This suggests students who skip applying due to rain redirect to other schools without compromising quality.

Breaking Down the Data: How Specific Conditions Affect Applications

The findings pinpoint precise impacts:

• Hot weather (above 80°F): 10.1 percent drop (2.9 percentage points fewer applications).
• Precipitation (rain, snow, sleet): 8.3 percent reduction (2.4 points).
• Cold snaps (below 40°F): 5.9 percent decline (1.7 points).
• Cloudy skies: 4.9 percent decrease (1.4 points).

These effects held across robustness checks, including "feels-like" temperatures accounting for humidity and wind, and restricting to tours booked 10+ days in advance to rule out last-minute cancellations by less interested students.

Combined poor weather proxies amplified the drop to 12.1 percent, underscoring cumulative gloom's power.

Demographic Disparities: Who Feels the Weather Most?

Effects weren't uniform. Males saw steeper declines—precipitation cut applications by 13.2 percent versus 4.7 percent for females. Racial and ethnic minorities experienced outsized impacts: precipitation reduced Asian students' rates by 18.5 percent (6.2 points), while heat hit Black and Hispanic participants hardest at 15.9 percent. White students showed insignificant changes, highlighting equity concerns in non-academic decision factors.

Geography mattered too: cold weather deterred visitors from warmer states by 14.6 percent, as unfamiliar chill amplified negative vibes.

Admissions leaders note this could exacerbate underrepresented group gaps, prompting targeted outreach.

Photo by Nicholas Ismael Martinez on Unsplash

Psychology Behind the 'Vibes': Projection Bias Explained

Projection bias occurs when people extrapolate temporary states—like a soggy tour—onto future experiences. Students imagine four rainy years ahead, ignoring seasonal averages. The Amherst team posits weather shapes intangible "feel," akin to dorm aesthetics or athletics but more random.

Prior research, like Uri Simonsohn's 2010 study, found sunny visits boosted enrollment via similar mechanisms. In today's data-driven era, this underscores non-cognitive factors' persistence.

Campus Visits in Context: Stats and Enrollment Landscape

Campus tours influence 69 percent of high schoolers' interest levels positively. With U.S. undergraduate enrollment rising modestly in 2026 (3 percent at community colleges), selective schools vie fiercely for applicants. Public four-years saw 1.4 percent growth, but privates lag amid affordability scrutiny.

Declines in international students (down due to visas) amplify domestic tour reliance. Bad weather risks compound for Northeast schools during peak March-April visits.

College Strategies: Weather-Proofing Recruitment

Institutions adapt proactively:

• Rescheduling: Monitor forecasts; offer indoor alternatives or virtual backups.
• Virtual Tours: Post-pandemic staples boost yield up to 28 percent per YouVisit data. 94 percent of staff report productivity gains.
• Hybrid Models: Combine 360-degree walkthroughs with live sessions for anytime access.
• Seasonal Timing: Shift tours to milder periods; PNW colleges like University of Washington emphasize evergreen appeal despite rain.

Sunny climes like UCLA leverage perpetual good weather as a draw.EAB highlights high-impact virtual strategies.

Case Studies: From Rainy Northeast to Sunny South

At Amherst (study site), awareness drives tour optimizations. University of Washington, in drizzly Seattle, invests in covered paths and virtual reality previews, maintaining top enrollment. Conversely, Southern flagships like University of Florida tout year-round warmth, correlating with application surges.

Small privates, facing winner-take-all dynamics, can't afford weather whims—Hampshire College's woes underscore urgency.

Photo by Neeraj Kumar on Unsplash

Climate Change Amplifies Risks: Future Outlook

With intensifying extremes—more heatwaves, erratic storms—tour volatility rises. Projections show 13 percent enrollment drop by 2041; weather-resilient strategies become vital. Colleges eye AI forecasting for scheduling, sustainable campuses signaling climate savvy.

Experts urge diversification: alumni panels, student ambassador videos transcend weather.

Actionable Insights for Students, Parents, and Admissions

For Families: Schedule multiple visits across seasons; prioritize virtuals for backups. Focus on data over one-day vibes. For Colleges: Invest in 24/7 virtuals (proven converters); train guides on mood-boosting narratives.

• Track tour-day weather-application correlations internally.
• Target weather-sensitive demographics with reassurances.

As enrollment stabilizes amid backlash, mastering these nuances separates thriving campuses from strugglers.