Understanding Provincial Retention in Ontario's Postsecondary System

Ontario's postsecondary education sector plays a central role in building the province's skilled workforce. A new report from the Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario examines where graduates from the province's colleges and universities settle two years after completing their programs. The study focuses on individuals who earned their first certificate, diploma, advanced diploma, or bachelor's degree between 2015 and 2020, comparing outcomes for domestic and international graduates.

Retention refers to the proportion of graduates who remain in Ontario rather than moving to another province or country. High retention supports local economies by keeping talent available to fill jobs in key sectors such as science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and health. The report uses linked administrative data to provide a clearer picture than previous studies, which often focused only on bachelor's degree holders or specific fields.

Context and Background on Graduate Mobility in Canada

Most postsecondary graduates who study in Canada stay in the province where they completed their education, particularly if it is their home province. Factors influencing whether graduates remain include job opportunities, earnings potential, personal circumstances, and field of study. University graduates and those with advanced credentials tend to show higher mobility than college graduates. International graduates often face additional considerations related to work permits and immigration pathways.

Ontario has invested significantly in expanding enrollments in priority areas like STEM and health programs. These investments aim to address labour shortages, yet questions persist about whether graduates contribute to the provincial economy long term. The new HEQCO analysis builds on earlier national research by drilling down into Ontario-specific patterns across credential types.

Key Findings from the HEQCO Report on Domestic Graduates

Domestic graduates demonstrate strong attachment to Ontario. The majority remain in the province two years after graduation, reflecting broad Canadian trends where home-province students are most likely to stay. Retention rates vary by credential level, with bachelor's degree holders showing slightly different patterns from those with certificates or diplomas.

Field of study influences outcomes. Graduates in business, humanities, arts, social sciences, and education fields often exhibit higher retention compared with those in STEM programs, though the gap has narrowed in recent years. Younger graduates and those originally from outside Ontario show somewhat lower retention, often moving for better employment prospects elsewhere in Canada.

The data highlight that Ontario retains the vast majority of its domestic postsecondary completers, supporting workforce stability in critical industries.

Retention Patterns Among International Graduates

International graduates present a more varied picture. While many stay in Ontario initially through post-graduation work opportunities, retention two years later tends to be lower than for domestic peers. Pathways such as work permits play an important role in decisions to remain.

The report notes that international graduates from certain programs are more likely to transition into the provincial labour market, particularly in high-demand areas. However, factors including family ties, economic conditions in home countries, and availability of permanent residency options affect longer-term decisions.

Understanding these dynamics helps institutions and policymakers design supports that encourage international talent to contribute to Ontario's economy beyond graduation.

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Implications for Ontario Universities and Colleges

The findings carry direct relevance for postsecondary institutions across the province. Universities and colleges can use retention data to refine recruitment, advising, and career services. Strengthening connections between academic programs and local employers may help boost the share of graduates who build careers in Ontario.

Institutions in regions outside major urban centres may face unique challenges in retaining graduates, as many opportunities concentrate in the Greater Toronto Area and other economic hubs. Partnerships with industry and community organizations can create clearer pathways for graduates to remain in their study regions.

Administrators are encouraged to review program-level outcomes and consider targeted initiatives that address mobility drivers identified in the research.

Policy Considerations and Government Role

Provincial and federal policies influence graduate retention through funding priorities, immigration rules, and labour market supports. Ontario's focus on STEM and health fields aligns with economic needs, yet retention strategies must account for the full spectrum of credentials.

Continued monitoring of outcomes for both domestic and international graduates will inform adjustments to study permit allocations, work permit durations, and settlement services. Collaboration between the Ministry of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security and institutions supports evidence-based decision making.

The report underscores the value of linked data systems in tracking long-term graduate trajectories and evaluating policy effectiveness.

Stakeholder Perspectives on Retention Challenges

University administrators note that retention supports institutional reputation and alumni networks while contributing to provincial prosperity. International student offices highlight the importance of career integration programs and community connections for graduates considering permanent stays.

Employers in high-growth sectors emphasize the need for graduates with practical experience and local networks. Graduates themselves cite job quality, cost of living, and family considerations as key factors in relocation decisions.

These perspectives illustrate the interconnected nature of education, immigration, and economic development in shaping retention outcomes.

Future Outlook and Strategies for Improvement

Looking ahead, Ontario's postsecondary sector can build on existing strengths to enhance retention. Expanded experiential learning opportunities, stronger employer partnerships, and improved transition supports for international graduates represent promising directions.

Continued investment in data infrastructure will allow more granular analysis of retention by region, demographic group, and program. Such insights can guide targeted interventions that address specific barriers to staying in the province.

Overall, the report provides a foundation for ongoing dialogue among institutions, government, and industry on maximizing the return on postsecondary investments.

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Broader Economic and Social Impacts

High graduate retention contributes to innovation, productivity, and community vitality across Ontario. Domestic graduates who remain help sustain public services and local economies, while international graduates bring diverse perspectives and global connections.

Lower retention in certain groups can lead to talent shortages in specific fields or regions. Addressing these gaps supports inclusive growth and helps meet labour demands in an evolving economy.

The analysis reinforces postsecondary education as a strategic asset for provincial competitiveness.