From Boom to Bust: The Role of International Students in US Higher Education

International students have long been a vital part of the American higher education landscape, bringing diverse perspectives, funding tuition-heavy programs, and contributing to research innovation. Full-time nonimmigrant students on F-1 visas, along with J-1 exchange visitors and M-1 vocational students, pay full out-of-state or private tuition rates without access to federal financial aid. This revenue stream has subsidized domestic students and supported campus operations. However, recent years have seen a dramatic shift, with enrollment plummeting amid policy changes in the second Trump administration.

The Institute of International Education's (IIE) Open Doors 2025 report paints a picture of resilience followed by reversal. For the 2024/25 academic year, the US hosted 1,177,766 international students, a 5% increase from prior years, representing 6% of total higher education enrollment. Yet, the Fall 2025 snapshot revealed a 1% overall decline, with new enrollments dropping 17%—the steepest fall in recent memory. Graduate programs, often the highest revenue generators, saw a 12% dip, while undergraduate numbers edged up 2% thanks to earlier commitments.

Trump Policies Fueling the Visa Crunch

Since President Trump's return in January 2025, a series of executive actions and State Department directives have tightened F-1 visa processing. Key measures include expanded travel bans targeting high-risk countries, heightened social media vetting, mandatory in-person interviews with reduced embassy capacity, and revocations for students perceived as national security risks. Visa issuances for students plunged 36% year-over-year from May to August 2025, per State Department data. A proposed rule in August 2025 aimed to limit post-graduation Optional Practical Training (OPT), a bridge to H-1B work visas that has retained top talent.

These policies echo the first Trump term's 2017-2021 restrictions but with accelerated enforcement. Over 300 visas were revoked in March 2025 alone for alleged violations at various campuses. Institutions report 96% of enrollment declines tied to visa delays, with 68% citing travel bans. The result: prospective students from India (now the top sender with 363,019 students, up 10%) and China (down 4% to 265,919) opting for Canada, Australia, or the UK, where policies are more welcoming.

Lewis University: A Cautionary Case Study

No story captures the transformation better than Lewis University, a private Catholic institution in Romeoville, Illinois. In fall 2024, international students numbered 1,397—nearly 20% of its 7,000 total enrollment—fueling growth in business, aviation, and nursing programs. The university hired specialized faculty like Zheng Zhou for data science to meet demand, expanding facilities and staff.

By fall 2025, new international enrollments cratered 37%, prompting 10% workforce cuts (dozens of positions) and program reviews. President David Livingston noted, "International students remade Lewis—they brought energy, diversity, and financial stability. Now, we're rethinking our model." Remaining students, mostly continuing undergrads from prior cohorts, leave graduate programs understaffed. Local businesses in Romeoville feel the pinch too, from empty apartments to quieter dining halls.

• Pre-decline: 20% intl share, revenue boost for scholarships and infrastructure.
• Post-decline: Layoffs, deferred hires, shift to domestic recruitment.
• Lessons: Over-reliance on one revenue stream exposes vulnerabilities.

National Trends: Data from Trusted Reports

NAFSA's Fall 2025 snapshot confirms the downturn: 17% fewer new students led to a 7% drop in campus-based enrollment (excluding OPT). States like New York ($152.5M loss), California ($161.9M), and Illinois ($62.1M) bear the brunt. For context, international students typically contribute $42.9 billion annually to the economy, supporting 355,736 jobs through tuition, housing, and consumer spending.NAFSA Economic Value Tool

Open Doors highlights STEM dominance (57% of intl students), with growth in community colleges but declines at four-year privates. Top fields: engineering, math/computer science, business.

Economic and Academic Ripples

The $1.1 billion national revenue shortfall translates to 23,000 lost jobs, hitting local economies hard. Small towns near colleges see reduced GDP contributions—$130 per resident on average. Academically, research labs suffer: international grads often lead publications and patents. Brookings notes innovation setbacks, as 75% of US patents with foreign inventors involve intl students.

Other cases: DePaul University (Chicago) down 62% in new grads; Bellevue College (WA) 36%; University of Wisconsin-Madison 25% undergrad drop. Publics like UC Santa Barbara face outsized hits due to triple in-state tuition rates.

Vulnerable Institutions: Small Privates in the Crosshairs

Brookings analysis flags small private colleges—median 271 undergrads—with 20-30% intl reliance as highest risk. Arts, business, and Christian-affiliated schools dominate, lacking endowments for buffers. Every institution over 30% intl undergrads is private; examples include niche spots like Rhode Island School of Design.

• Very high risk (>30% intl undergrads): Tiny specialized privates.
• High risk (20-30%): 87% private, often evangelical.
• Moderate (10-20%): Mix, but revenue exposed.

Larger publics pivot faster but lose research edge.

Stakeholder Perspectives and Adaptation Tactics

Administrators like Lewis's Livingston urge policy reversal: "Diversity drives excellence." Faculty worry about program viability; students lament lost peers. NAFSA advocates streamlined visas tied to economic benefits.NAFSA Snapshot

Colleges respond with:

• Deferrals to 2026 (72% offered spring, 56% fall).
• Targeted recruitment in stable countries (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa).
• Hybrid programs, partnerships abroad.
• Domestic focus, online expansion.

Photo by Jorge Fernández Salas on Unsplash

Global Shifts and Future Outlook

Competitors gain: Canada caps lifted post-2025, Australia invests $1B in intl ed. Surveys show 48% fewer US undergrad admits shifting to Europe/Asia. Recovery hinges on 2026 midterms, court challenges, or visa reforms. Optimists predict rebound if OPT expands; pessimists foresee permanent 15-20% drops.

US higher ed must diversify: boost domestic grad funding, emphasize value to policymakers. The intl student era remade colleges—its end demands reinvention for sustainability and global relevance.